Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 191...WW
192...WW 193...WW 194...WW 195...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE LOWER-MO VALLEY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 196 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI LM 210050Z - 210800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WSW LSE/LA CROSSE WI/ - 40ENE MMO/MARSEILLES IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /31WSW ODI - 16E JOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 44799208 42758795 40438795 42479208
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 196 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 196
VALID 210445Z - 210540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BMI
TO 50 S RAC TO 20 ESE MSN TO 45 WNW DBQ TO 25 NW VOK.
..SMITH..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-053-075-091-097-197-210540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK FORD IROQUOIS
KANKAKEE LAKE WILL
$$
IAC043-210540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAYTON
$$
WIC001-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-057-059-077-079-081-089-
103-111-117-123-131-133-210540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC
GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA
JUNEAU KENOSHA MARQUETTE
MILWAUKEE MONROE OZAUKEE
RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN
VERNON WASHINGTON WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ643-644-645-646-740-741-742-210540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 196
VALID 210250Z - 210340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-053-063-073-075-085-089-091-093-097-
099-103-105-111-141-155-161-177-195-197-201-210340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY HENRY
IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS KANE
KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON
MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC005-019-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-089-097-105-131-139-
163-191-210340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BUCHANAN CEDAR
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
FLOYD HOWARD JACKSON
JONES MITCHELL MUSCATINE
SCOTT WINNESHIEK
$$
MNC045-055-099-169-210340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER
WINONA
$$
WIC001-011-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-057-059-
063-065-077-079-081-089-101-103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-133-
210340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO COLUMBIA
CRAWFORD DANE DODGE
FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN
GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON
JEFFERSON JUNEAU KENOSHA
LA CROSSE LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE
MILWAUKEE MONROE OZAUKEE
RACINE RICHLAND ROCK
SAUK SHEBOYGAN TREMPEALEAU
VERNON WALWORTH WASHINGTON
WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ643-644-645-646-740-741-742-210340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.