Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 245 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 196. WATCH NUMBER 196 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 245 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...MEAD/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 197 SEVERE TSTM TX 270745Z - 271500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NW ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 50WSW JCT/JUNCTION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /35NW ABI - 43WSW JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
REPLACES WW 196..TX
LAT...LON 32919900 30229929 30220180 32910158
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 197 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 197
VALID 271435Z - 271540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 6R6 TO
35 SW SJT TO 40 ENE JCT.
..GOSS..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC105-267-319-327-413-435-271540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT KIMBLE MASON
MENARD SCHLEICHER SUTTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 197
VALID 271350Z - 271440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E FST TO
15 SW SJT TO 50 NE JCT.
..GOSS..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC095-105-235-267-307-319-327-411-413-435-451-271440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONCHO CROCKETT IRION
KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 197
VALID 271135Z - 271240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-207-227-235-253-267-307-319-
327-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-417-431-435-441-447-451-
271240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL
HOWARD IRION JONES
KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MITCHELL NOLAN
REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 197
VALID 271040Z - 271140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 596.
..MEAD..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-207-227-235-253-267-307-319-
327-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-417-431-435-441-447-451-
271140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL
HOWARD IRION JONES
KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MITCHELL NOLAN
REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 197
VALID 270940Z - 271040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-207-227-235-253-267-307-319-
327-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-417-431-435-441-447-451-
271040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL
HOWARD IRION JONES
KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MITCHELL NOLAN
REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 197
VALID 270840Z - 270940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-207-227-235-253-267-307-319-
327-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-417-431-435-441-447-451-
270940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT
FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL
HOWARD IRION JONES
KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MITCHELL NOLAN
REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.