Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...WW 199...WW 200...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAS HEATED AND
DESTABILIZED. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AND
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG AND 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 201 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 271750Z - 280000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40W CQB/CHANDLER OK/ - 25E TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /22N OKC - 69W FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 36729752 38759166 36749166 34709752
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 201 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 201
VALID 272335Z - 280000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ADM TO
25 WNW TUL TO 10 NNW JLN TO 40 S SZL.
WW 201 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280000Z.
..GARNER..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC063-133-280000-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUGHES SEMINOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 201
VALID 272240Z - 272340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ADM TO
10 S CQB TO 25 NNE PNC.
..GARNER..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-143-272340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-272340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-272340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-063-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-
131-133-135-143-145-147-272340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HUGHES
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 201
VALID 272130Z - 272240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE OKC TO
20 NW CQB TO 25 NNE PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 604
..GARNER..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-143-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-272240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-272240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-063-081-087-091-097-101-105-107-111-
113-115-117-125-131-133-135-143-145-147-272240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HUGHES LINCOLN MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 201
VALID 271940Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-143-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-272040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-272040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-063-081-083-087-091-097-101-105-107-
109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-135-143-145-147-272040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HUGHES LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.