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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WW AREA. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SITUATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 201 TORNADO OK TX 211525Z - 220000Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SSW ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 35SSE PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM N/S /32NE SJT - 50NNW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 33130001 34549522 31799522 30370001
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 201 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 201
VALID 212040Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SJT TO
40 SSW BWD TO 25 S SEP TO 40 S FTW TO 10 N DAL TO 20 SE DUA TO 45
WNW DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 756
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-212140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW
$$
TXC001-027-035-085-099-119-139-145-147-161-193-213-217-223-231-
251-257-267-277-281-289-293-309-319-331-349-379-395-397-411-467-
212140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DELTA
ELLIS FALLS FANNIN
FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KIMBLE
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MASON
MILAM NAVARRO RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SAN SABA
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 201
VALID 211940Z - 212040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SJT TO
40 SSW BWD TO 25 S SEP TO 5 S FTW TO 20 SW GYI TO 30 ENE ADM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 752
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-023-095-212040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHOCTAW MARSHALL
$$
TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-147-161-181-193-213-
217-223-231-251-257-267-277-281-289-293-307-309-319-327-331-333-
349-379-395-397-411-439-467-212040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KIMBLE
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN
MASON MENARD MILAM
MILLS NAVARRO RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SAN SABA
TARRANT VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 201
VALID 211845Z - 211940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SJT TO
25 S ABI TO 35 E ABI TO 20 SW MWL TO 45 ESE SPS TO 35 WSW ADM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 752
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-023-085-095-211940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE
MARSHALL
$$
TXC001-027-035-049-059-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-119-121-133-
139-143-145-147-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-267-
277-281-289-293-307-309-319-327-331-333-337-349-363-367-379-395-
397-399-411-425-439-467-497-211940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN
COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
KIMBLE LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MASON MENARD
MILAM MILLS MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER
RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 201
VALID 211740Z - 211840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SJT TO
25 S ABI TO 45 W MWL TO 40 NNW MWL TO 35 ENE SPS.
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-023-085-095-211840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE
MARSHALL
$$
TXC001-027-035-049-059-077-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-119-121-
133-139-143-145-147-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-
267-277-281-289-293-307-309-319-327-331-333-337-349-363-367-379-
395-397-399-411-425-429-439-467-497-503-211840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
CONCHO COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN KIMBLE LAMAR
LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON
MENARD MILAM MILLS
MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.