Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 200. WATCH NUMBER 200 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 300 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 201...
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS WATCH AREA HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NERN TX. WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH
MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN STORMS
THAT FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 202 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 272000Z - 280200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 25SSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /16NW LIT - 40WNW AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
REPLACES WW 200..AR LA OK TX
LAT...LON 34869101 31399191 31399462 34869383
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 202 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 202
VALID 280130Z - 280240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-280240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-280240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC037-067-203-315-365-419-280240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS HARRISON
MARION PANOLA SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 202
VALID 280030Z - 280140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 611
..GARNER..04/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-025-027-041-043-057-061-069-073-079-081-091-099-133-
139-280140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DESHA DREW
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
MILLER NEVADA SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-280140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC037-067-203-315-365-419-280140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS HARRISON
MARION PANOLA SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 202
VALID 272340Z - 280040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-061-069-
073-079-081-085-091-097-099-103-109-119-125-133-139-280040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
PULASKI SALINE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-280040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC037-067-203-315-365-419-280040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS HARRISON
MARION PANOLA SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 202
VALID 272230Z - 272340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-061-069-
073-079-081-085-091-097-099-103-109-119-125-133-139-272340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
PULASKI SALINE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-272340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC037-067-203-315-365-419-272340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS HARRISON
MARION PANOLA SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 202
VALID 272130Z - 272240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-061-069-
073-079-081-085-091-097-099-103-109-119-125-133-139-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
PULASKI SALINE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-272240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC037-067-203-315-365-419-272240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CASS HARRISON
MARION PANOLA SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.