Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...
DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
MORNING... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN STORMS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BECOME THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT IN A SWATH CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 202 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 211545Z - 220000Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SW LTS/ALTUS OK/ - 15NNE RKR/POTEAU OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /25ESE CDS - 15SW FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 34849983 35869451 34569451 33549983
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 202 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 202
VALID 212040Z - 220000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MLC
TO 25 N FSM.
WW 202 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220000Z.
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC079-127-220000-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 202
VALID 211940Z - 212040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DUA TO
15 NNE MKO.
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-061-077-079-101-121-127-135-212040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 202
VALID 211845Z - 211940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ADM TO
30 NE ADM TO 25 SSW TUL.
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-029-061-063-069-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-123-127-135-
211940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA COAL HASKELL
HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 202
VALID 211740Z - 211840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SPS TO
40 ENE SPS TO 5 WSW OKC.
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-019-027-029-049-061-063-067-069-077-079-087-091-099-101-
107-109-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-137-211840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL GARVIN HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.