Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NEW YORK
SOUTHERN VERMONT
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY
NEAR/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE
CAPE...SHEAR BENEATH 30 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AT LEAST BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH TIME...CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
GENERATED BY ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...RESULTING IN ONE OR MORE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING SMALL STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 203 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY VT LE LO 211740Z - 220100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10WNW BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 30SSE PSF/PITTSFIELD MA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /12WNW BUF - 18WNW BDL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 43777891 42817308 41227308 42187891
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 203 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 203
VALID 212355Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-220040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-220040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
220040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ERIE FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
VTC003-025-220040-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
LEZ020-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-065-220040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 203
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-212340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-212340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
212340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ERIE FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
VTC003-025-212340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
LEZ020-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-065-212340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 203
VALID 212135Z - 212240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-212240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-212240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
212240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ERIE FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
VTC003-025-212240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
LEZ020-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-065-212240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 203
VALID 212040Z - 212140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 757
..ROGERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-212140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-212140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
212140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ERIE FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
VTC003-025-212140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
LEZ020-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-065-212140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 203
VALID 212000Z - 212140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-212140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-212140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-
039-041-043-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-091-
093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
212140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
ERIE FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATES
$$
VTC003-025-212140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
LEZ020-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-065-212140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.