Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 910 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SMALL LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SWRN LA THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF LOW LEVEL
ROTATIONS/POSSIBLE TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO A BROADER THREAT OF
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 204 SEVERE TSTM LA CW 280210Z - 280600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 55SW 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /20W AEX - 58SSE LCH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 31299194 29209186 29209369 31299380
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 204 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 204
VALID 280545Z - 280640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE BPT
TO 20 S LCH TO 25 ENE LCH TO 30 ESE POE TO 30 SE IER.
..MEAD..04/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-023-039-053-055-079-097-113-280640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
VERMILION
$$
GMZ432-452-280640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 204
VALID 280450Z - 280540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BPT
TO 30 NW LCH TO 25 WSW POE TO 40 NW POE AND 35 SSE BPT TO 5 ENE
LCH TO 25 SE POE TO 20 N POE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 614.
..EDWARDS..04/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-023-039-053-055-079-097-113-115-280540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
VERMILION VERNON
$$
GMZ432-450-452-280540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 204
VALID 280325Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BPT
TO 30 NW LCH TO 25 WSW POE TO 40 NW POE.
..EDWARDS..04/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-079-097-113-115-280440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
RAPIDES ST. LANDRY VERMILION
VERNON
$$
GMZ432-450-452-280440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.