Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW
203...WW 204...
DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WITH AN EASTWARD
ACCELERATION INTO THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DECREASING INHIBITION WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO FORM IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...WHICH WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 205 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 211850Z - 220300Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NW GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 50ESE ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /36NW GGG - 25N MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 34209526 34319201 31569201 31459526
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 205 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 205
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LFK TO
20 NNW IER TO 25 SW LLQ.
..SMITH..05/22/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-043-049-059-061-069-073-085-111-127-220240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE
UNION WINN
$$
TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE NACOGDOCHES
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 205
VALID 212355Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE TYR TO
15 N SHV TO 25 ESE HOT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 760
..SMITH..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-027-099-139-220040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN COLUMBIA
NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-220040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-220040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 205
VALID 212040Z - 212140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 756
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-091-099-
103-109-133-139-212140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-212140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
OKC089-212140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-212140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 205
VALID 211945Z - 212040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 753
..JEWELL..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-091-099-
103-109-133-139-212040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-212040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
$$
OKC089-212040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-212040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.