Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
EASTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW
203...WW 204...WW 205...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE COLD POOL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT...IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEEDING INTO STORMS IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
SIZABLE CAPE...AND MODEST...20-30 KT...SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SYSTEM PROPAGATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACCELERATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 206 SEVERE TSTM KY OH TN VA WV 211930Z - 220200Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N JKL/JACKSON KY/ - 55S TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /68WSW HNN - 40WNW ODF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 38338180 35008250 35008550 38338494
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 206 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 206
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE CHA TO
35 SSE CSV TO 20 WNW TYS TO 20 SSE LOZ TO 20 NW JKL TO 40 ENE LEX
TO 45 ENE LEX.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC013-019-025-043-063-071-089-095-115-119-127-131-133-153-159-
165-175-193-195-205-237-212340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOYD BREATHITT
CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD
GREENUP HARLAN JOHNSON
KNOTT LAWRENCE LESLIE
LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN
MENIFEE MORGAN PERRY
PIKE ROWAN WOLFE
$$
OHC087-212340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE
$$
TNC009-011-019-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-093-105-107-
123-139-155-163-171-173-179-212340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT BRADLEY CARTER
CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER
GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK
HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MONROE POLK SEVIER
SULLIVAN UNICOI UNION
WASHINGTON
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-212340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
WVC005-011-043-045-047-059-081-099-109-212340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CABELL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO
RALEIGH WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 206
VALID 212135Z - 212240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC005-011-013-017-019-021-025-043-045-049-051-063-065-067-069-
071-073-079-089-095-097-109-113-115-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-
137-147-151-153-159-165-167-173-175-181-189-193-195-197-199-203-
205-209-235-237-239-212240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BATH BELL
BOURBON BOYD BOYLE
BREATHITT CARTER CASEY
CLARK CLAY ELLIOTT
ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING
FLOYD FRANKLIN GARRARD
GREENUP HARLAN HARRISON
JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON
KNOTT KNOX LAUREL
LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE
LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN
MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN
SCOTT WHITLEY WOLFE
WOODFORD
$$
OHC087-212240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-035-049-057-059-063-065-067-
073-089-091-093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-155-163-171-
173-179-212240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CARTER
CLAIBORNE COCKE CUMBERLAND
FENTRESS GRAINGER GREENE
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MORGAN
POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION WASHINGTON
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-212240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
WVC005-011-043-045-047-059-081-099-109-212240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CABELL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO
RALEIGH WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 206
VALID 212045Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CHA
TO 45 N CSV TO 35 NNW LEX.
..ROGERS..05/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC005-011-013-017-019-021-025-043-045-049-051-063-065-067-069-
071-073-079-089-095-097-109-113-115-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-
137-147-151-153-159-165-167-173-175-181-189-193-195-197-199-203-
205-209-235-237-239-212140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BATH BELL
BOURBON BOYD BOYLE
BREATHITT CARTER CASEY
CLARK CLAY ELLIOTT
ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING
FLOYD FRANKLIN GARRARD
GREENUP HARLAN HARRISON
JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON
KNOTT KNOX LAUREL
LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE
LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN
MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN
SCOTT WHITLEY WOLFE
WOODFORD
$$
OHC087-212140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-035-049-057-059-063-065-067-
073-089-091-093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-155-163-171-
173-179-212140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CARTER
CLAIBORNE COCKE CUMBERLAND
FENTRESS GRAINGER GREENE
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MORGAN
POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION WASHINGTON
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-212140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
WVC005-011-043-045-047-059-081-099-109-212140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CABELL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO
RALEIGH WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.