Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW
203...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE INTERSECTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH ANOTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED/RETREATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE BORDER COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY ISOLATED DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 207 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 212000Z - 220300Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 35SSW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /31NE DYR - 26S SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36408726 33028876 33029186 36409051
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 207 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
