Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF
ROSWELL NEW MEXICO TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 205. WATCH NUMBER 205 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1100 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH INITIAL STORMS LATE THIS EVENING...OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARDS LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 207 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 290400Z - 290900Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25S ROW/ROSWELL NM/ - 55NNE MAF/MIDLAND TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /25S ROW - 44NNE MAF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
REPLACES WW 205..NM TX
LAT...LON 34000452 33770183 31600183 31840452
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 207 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 207
VALID 290645Z - 290740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-015-025-041-290740-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES EDDY LEA
ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-495-290740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR
GAINES LOVING MARTIN
MIDLAND WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 207
VALID 290545Z - 290640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-015-025-041-290640-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES EDDY LEA
ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-495-290640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR
GAINES LOVING MARTIN
MIDLAND WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 207
VALID 290430Z - 290540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 623.
..EDWARDS..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-015-025-041-290540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES EDDY LEA
ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-495-290540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR
GAINES LOVING MARTIN
MIDLAND WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
