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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LUFKIN TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 203...WW
204...WW 205...WW 206...WW 207...
DISCUSSION...SRN END OF NE TX SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TOWARD THE
SABINE RVR VLY THROUGH THE EVE. FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING SEGMENTS
WILL BE FOSTERED BY CONTINUED 20 KT INFLOW OF MOIST SLY FLOW BENEATH
DIFFLUENT...WLY...UPR-LVL FLOW BETWEEN POLAR AND SUB-TROPICAL JETS.
WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR STORM
MODE AND LIKELY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL EML CAP... SAMPLED
BY SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING MADE BY TEXAS A & M UNIV...SUGGEST THAT SUCH
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD AND THAT MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE
LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 208 SEVERE TSTM TX 212355Z - 220600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE LFK/LUFKIN TX/ - 30SE CLL/COLLEGE STATION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /33NE LFK - 39WNW IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 31579305 30279476 30279726 31579559
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 208 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 208
VALID 220525Z - 220640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CLL TO
10 ESE UTS TO 15 SE LFK TO 30 NW POE.
..LEITMAN..05/22/13
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC199-241-291-339-351-373-407-457-220640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK
SAN JACINTO TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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