Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 205...WW 206...WW
207...WW 208...
DISCUSSION...SW-NE AR-LA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ...WITH
EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS AND SUSTAINED STORMS IN LEWP CRESTS POSING A
RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
THROUGH LATE TNGT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 209 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 220200Z - 220700Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25SSE POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 40ENE GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /35N LCH - 45ENE SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 30709427 33709073 33708812 30709176
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 209 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 209
VALID 220635Z - 220700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POE
TO 20 ESE ESF TO 15 ENE HEZ TO 20 SW JAN TO 25 ENE JAN TO 45 SW
CBM TO 10 WNW CBM.
WW 209 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220700Z.
..LEITMAN..05/22/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-029-039-079-115-220700-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CONCORDIA EVANGELINE RAPIDES
VERNON
$$
MSC001-025-029-037-063-065-069-075-077-085-087-099-101-103-105-
123-127-129-220700-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY COPIAH
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN LOWNDES NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 209
VALID 220525Z - 220640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW POE TO
10 WSW ESF TO 25 W HEZ TO 30 NNE HEZ TO 35 SE GWO TO 45 ENE GWO.
..LEITMAN..05/22/13
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-029-039-079-115-220640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CONCORDIA EVANGELINE RAPIDES
VERNON
$$
MSC001-019-021-025-029-037-049-063-065-069-075-077-079-085-087-
089-099-101-103-105-121-123-127-129-155-159-220640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN
HINDS JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
