Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 214. WATCH NUMBER 214 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 115 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...N TX/S OK FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX...ATOP ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WAKE LOW. ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING FED BY RICH MOISTURE ALONG
MODERATE SSWLY LLJ. STORM MERGERS AND PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF LEWPS
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS/SVR HAIL
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 215 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 300615Z - 301400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80W SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/ - 40S PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /31SE CDS - 52NW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
REPLACES WW 214..OK TX
LAT...LON 34759990 33849544 32259544 33169990
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 215 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 215
VALID 301145Z - 301240Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15
SSE FTW TO 30 N DAL TO 30 ESE GYI TO 10 SSE PRX.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-113-119-139-223-231-251-257-379-397-439-467-301240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN DALLAS DELTA
ELLIS HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN RAINS
ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 215
VALID 301035Z - 301140Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25
WNW MWL TO 55 ESE SPS TO 15 NW GYI TO 30 NW PRX.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-301140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN
$$
TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-
337-363-367-379-397-429-439-467-497-301140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
RAINS ROCKWALL STEPHENS
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 215
VALID 300945Z - 301040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-033-057-065-067-069-085-095-141-301040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COTTON HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-077-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-155-181-197-207-221-
223-231-237-251-257-275-277-337-363-367-379-397-429-439-447-467-
485-487-497-503-301040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KNOX
LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
STEPHENS TARRANT THROCKMORTON
VAN ZANDT WICHITA WILBARGER
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 215
VALID 300835Z - 300940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 643.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-033-057-065-067-069-085-095-141-300940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COTTON HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-077-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-155-181-197-207-221-
223-231-237-251-257-275-277-337-363-367-379-397-429-439-447-467-
485-487-497-503-300940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KNOX
LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
STEPHENS TARRANT THROCKMORTON
VAN ZANDT WICHITA WILBARGER
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 215
VALID 300735Z - 300840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-033-057-065-067-069-085-095-141-300840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COTTON HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-077-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-155-181-197-207-221-
223-231-237-251-257-275-277-337-363-367-379-397-429-439-447-467-
485-487-497-503-300840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KNOX
LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
STEPHENS TARRANT THROCKMORTON
VAN ZANDT WICHITA WILBARGER
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.