Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1235 AM UNTIL 800 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST 2 HRS ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG FRONT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DEPTH
OF BOUNDARY AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SSELY LOW LVL FLOW DIRECTED INTO
IT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND FORCED ASCENT OF MOIST AIR AT FRONT MAY SUPPORT SCTD
SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 216 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 300635Z - 301400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW MCK/MCCOOK NE/ - 55S MCK/MCCOOK NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /30NW MCK - 18WNW HLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 40549933 39389888 39380226 40540276
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 216 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 216
VALID 301040Z - 301140Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20
E HLC TO 40 SSW EAR.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC089-163-183-301140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL ROOKS SMITH
$$
NEC001-035-061-099-129-181-301140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FRANKLIN
KEARNEY NUCKOLLS WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 216
VALID 300945Z - 301040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE GLD
TO 15 SSW MCK TO 40 E MCK TO 25 WSW EAR.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-065-089-137-147-163-179-183-193-301040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL
NORTON PHILLIPS ROOKS
SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS
$$
NEC001-035-061-065-083-099-129-137-181-301040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FRANKLIN
FURNAS HARLAN KEARNEY
NUCKOLLS PHELPS WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 216
VALID 300840Z - 300940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AKO TO
25 ENE MCK TO 35 W EAR.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC125-300940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-193-300940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS
$$
NEC057-065-073-083-087-137-145-300940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HITCHCOCK PHELPS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 216
VALID 300735Z - 300840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC125-300840-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-193-300840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS
$$
NEC029-057-063-065-073-083-085-087-137-145-300840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK PHELPS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.