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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 214...WW 215...
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOWING
COMPLEX MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR A
WHILE LONGER.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 216 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 010645Z - 011000Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25W SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/ - 15S FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /26WSW SGF - 25NNE FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 37229311 35779345 35779487 37229455
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 216 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 216
VALID 010940Z - 011040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FYV
TO 25 S UMN TO 25 N HRO.
..GOSS..05/01/12
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-087-011040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 216
VALID 010835Z - 010940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MKO
TO 20 ESE GMJ TO 15 E UMN TO 15 W SGF.
..GOSS..05/01/12
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-010940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-077-209-213-010940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE
STONE TANEY
$$
OKC001-010940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
