Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE MCS...INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SMALL BOWS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
EASTWARD MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT.
THIS MCS IS BEING AIDED BY A STRONG /50 KT/ SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
AS PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM HASTINGS/BLUE HILL NEB. BOUTS OF SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASIDE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CINH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO A WANING INTENSITY TREND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 216 SEVERE TSTM NE 250505Z - 251000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SSW BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/ - 45SSE OLU/COLUMBUS NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /39ESE LBF - 54NW PWE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 41709995 41729701 39979701 39959995
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 216 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 216
VALID 250640Z - 250740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/25/13
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-011-019-023-035-047-059-061-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-
121-125-129-137-141-143-151-159-163-181-185-250740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BUFFALO
BUTLER CLAY DAWSON
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GOSPER HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
PHELPS PLATTE POLK
SALINE SEWARD SHERMAN
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.