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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG AN AXIS
FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH A REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS. BOWS/LEWPS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 217 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO MS TN 302210Z - 010400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75WSW MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ - 20WNW OWB/OWENSBORO KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /49E LIT - 13ESE PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 34619216 37838851 37838650 34619023
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 217 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 217
VALID 010135Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S BVX TO
25 WNW MEM TO 30 W MKL TO 45 SSE PAH TO 35 E PAH TO 30 WSW EVV.
..BROYLES..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC077-123-010240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE ST. FRANCIS
$$
KYC033-035-047-055-059-101-107-149-177-219-221-225-233-010240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MSC033-143-010240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TUNICA
$$
TNC017-033-047-053-075-079-157-010240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENRY
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 217
VALID 010015Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BVX
TO 25 SSW JBR TO 35 E JBR TO 40 N DYR TO 15 S CGI.
..BROYLES..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-037-045-077-085-093-095-111-117-119-123-145-147-010140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC059-069-127-151-010140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GALLATIN HARDIN MASSAC
POPE
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-010140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MSC033-143-010140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC133-010140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-075-079-095-097-131-157-167-183-010140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
