Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LIBERAL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...STORM
MERGERS COULD LEAD TO SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 218 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 252210Z - 260400Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WNW MCK/MCCOOK NE/ - 10WSW LBL/LIBERAL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /26WNW MCK - 9WSW LBL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 40360016 36970023 36970204 40360205
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 218 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 218
VALID 260245Z - 260340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HLC
TO 45 WSW HLC TO 50 E GLD TO 40 SSW MCK TO 10 SSE MCK TO 35 NE
MCK AND 50 S HLC TO 50 N GCK TO 45 SSE GLD TO 35 S ITR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 801
..DEAN..05/26/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-063-065-137-179-260340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM
NORTON SHERIDAN
$$
NEC145-260340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 218
VALID 260140Z - 260240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S HLC TO
50 N GCK TO 45 SSE GLD TO 35 S ITR.
..DEAN..05/26/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-260240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-260240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 218
VALID 260025Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/26/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-055-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119-129-
137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-260140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY
GOVE GRAHAM GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON
NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-260140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 218
VALID 252335Z - 260040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/25/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-055-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119-129-
137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-260040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY
GOVE GRAHAM GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON
NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-260040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.