Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1245 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA
CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL OK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS/VEERS AND IMPINGES ON
WEAK BOUNDARY...STRETCHING SEWD FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL
OK. MUCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 219 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 010545Z - 011200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NE FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ - 30NNW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /10ESE RZC - 28NNW OKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 35259391 34869780 36749780 37159391
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 219 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 219
VALID 011145Z - 011200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLC
TO 40 SE CQB TO 25 NE CQB TO 35 ESE END TO 10 SSE END.
WW 219 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 011200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 651.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-011200-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-011200-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-011200-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-061-071-091-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-011200-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
HASKELL KAY MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 219
VALID 011025Z - 011140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLC
TO 40 SE CQB TO 20 NE CQB TO 30 ESE END TO 10 SSE END.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-033-087-143-011140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CRAWFORD MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-099-011140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE LABETTE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-011140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-061-071-091-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-011140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
HASKELL KAY MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 219
VALID 010920Z - 011040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLC
TO 40 SE CQB TO 20 NE CQB TO 30 ESE END TO 10 SSE END.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 650.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-033-087-143-011040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CRAWFORD MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-099-011040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE LABETTE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-011040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-061-071-091-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-011040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
HASKELL KAY MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 219
VALID 010835Z - 010940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 650.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-033-087-143-010940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CRAWFORD MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-099-010940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE LABETTE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-010940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-061-071-091-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-010940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
HASKELL KAY MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 219
VALID 010730Z - 010840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MLC TO
35 SE CQB TO 25 SSE CQB TO 20 NE CQB TO 35 NW CQB TO 35 ESE END
TO 20 SW END.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-033-087-143-010840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CRAWFORD MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-099-010840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE LABETTE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-010840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-061-071-091-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-010840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
HASKELL KAY MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 219
VALID 010625Z - 010740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WRN PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS GVIEN CURRENT
WEAKENING TRENDS WITH LONE REMAINING SUPERCELL IN CENTRAL OK.
..EDWARDS..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-033-087-143-010740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CRAWFORD MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-099-010740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE LABETTE
$$
MOC009-097-109-119-145-010740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON
$$
OKC001-017-021-027-035-037-041-047-051-061-063-071-073-081-083-
087-091-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-
135-143-145-147-010740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CANADIAN CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES KAY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.