Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL 200
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING COMPLEXES OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- INITIALLY
OVER N-CENTRAL AND NERN OK -- MAY BECOME STILL BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THEY MOVE INTO GRADUALLY WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...AND
WEAKENING MLCINH. BOTH FORWARD AND REAR PROPAGATIONAL MOTION
COMPONENTS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS SITUATION...LEADING TO THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THAT WILL EXPAND SWD/SEWD WITH TIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...EDWARDS/IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 220 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 011225Z - 011900Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NNW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ - 55ESE FSM/FORT SMITH AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /21S END - 45ESE FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 36869791 35889347 34159347 35139791
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 220 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 220
VALID 011630Z - 011740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-071-083-087-097-113-127-131-143-149-011740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
OKC001-021-027-037-047-053-061-063-071-073-077-079-081-083-087-
091-097-101-103-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-125-131-133-135-143-
145-147-011740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
CREEK GARFIELD GRANT
HASKELL HUGHES KAY
KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 220
VALID 011430Z - 011540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-071-083-087-097-113-127-131-143-149-011540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
OKC001-021-027-037-047-053-061-063-071-073-077-079-081-083-087-
091-097-101-103-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-125-131-133-135-143-
145-147-011540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
CREEK GARFIELD GRANT
HASKELL HUGHES KAY
KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.