Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 75 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...MCS ACROSS TN VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH
DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN MASS INFLOW ON
THE NOSE OF 30KT LLJ. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS
COMPLEX...AND PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW
NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS AL...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...COUPLED WITH WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL FORM SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 221 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 011925Z - 020000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50W MSL/MUSCLE SHOALS AL/ - 75ENE HSV/HUNTSVILLE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /50W MSL - 21WNW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30020.
LAT...LON 35478850 35778555 34348555 34028850
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 221 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 221
VALID 012240Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-012340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
MSC003-057-117-141-012340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ITAWAMBA PRENTISS
TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-015-031-051-055-061-071-099-103-109-115-117-119-127-149-
153-175-177-181-012340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MCNAIRY MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE RUTHERFORD
SEQUATCHIE VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 221
VALID 012140Z - 012240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-012240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
MSC003-057-117-141-012240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ITAWAMBA PRENTISS
TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-015-031-051-055-061-071-099-103-109-115-117-119-127-149-
153-175-177-181-012240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MCNAIRY MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE RUTHERFORD
SEQUATCHIE VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 221
VALID 012030Z - 012140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-012140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB
FRANKLIN JACKSON LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
MSC003-057-117-141-012140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ITAWAMBA PRENTISS
TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC003-015-031-051-055-061-071-099-103-109-115-117-119-127-149-
153-175-177-181-012140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
HARDIN LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MCNAIRY MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE RUTHERFORD
SEQUATCHIE VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.