Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 221...WW 222...
DISCUSSION...EAST-WEST AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY SWD ADVANCING FRONT AND WWD MOVING MCV SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN TSTMS FROM NRN AR EWD ACROSS THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING EWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV NOW OVER THE OZARKS. THIS...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSIFICATION INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER MCS MAY BE THE RESULT WITH
WIND/HAIL THREAT PERSISTING ACROSS MS RIVER INTO LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 223 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 012040Z - 020300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SW FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ - 40ENE MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /26NNW FSM - 53ESE DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 36529441 36548826 35098826 35069441
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 223 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 223
VALID 020125Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E POF TO
65 SSW CKV.
..HURLBUT..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-055-
063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-020240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON PERRY POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-020240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-020240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 223
VALID 020030Z - 020140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-055-
063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-020140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON PERRY POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-020140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
157-167-183-020140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 223
VALID 012355Z - 020040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 660
..HURLBUT..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-055-
063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-020040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON PERRY POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-020040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
157-167-183-020040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 223
VALID 012240Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-055-
063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-012340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON PERRY POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-012340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
157-167-183-012340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 223
VALID 012140Z - 012240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/01/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-055-
063-065-067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-012240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
NEWTON PERRY POINSETT
POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-012240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
157-167-183-012240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.