Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
STRONGEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATER
TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ COULD ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
GUSTS AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 223 TORNADO NE 270035Z - 270700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WNW BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/ - 50S OFK/NORFOLK NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /36NE LBF - 42E OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
LAT...LON 42340026 41979743 40529743 40900026
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 223 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 223
VALID 270335Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ANW TO
25 SE ANW TO 35 NNW ONL.
..GOSS..05/27/13
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-017-019-041-047-071-077-079-081-089-093-115-119-
121-125-141-143-149-163-175-183-185-270440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BROWN BUFFALO CUSTER
DAWSON GARFIELD GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HOLT
HOWARD LOUP MADISON
MERRICK NANCE PLATTE
POLK ROCK SHERMAN
VALLEY WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 223
VALID 270245Z - 270340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 813.
..GRAMS..05/27/13
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-017-019-041-047-071-077-079-081-089-093-115-119-
121-125-141-143-149-163-175-183-185-270340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BROWN BUFFALO CUSTER
DAWSON GARFIELD GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HOLT
HOWARD LOUP MADISON
MERRICK NANCE PLATTE
POLK ROCK SHERMAN
VALLEY WHEELER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.