Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...WW 223...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHEAST OK OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 224 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 020255Z - 020900Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SE BVX/BATESVILLE AR/ - 20SSW MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /51S ARG - 16SSW MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 34549108 33889591 35349591 35999108
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 224 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 224
VALID 020815Z - 020900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LIT
TO 20 NNE HOT TO 25 SE RKR TO 25 SW MLC.
WW 224 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020900Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 664.
..EDWARDS..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-023-029-033-045-047-053-063-067-069-071-083-085-095-105-
115-117-119-125-127-131-141-145-147-149-020900-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GRANT INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE PERRY
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
OKC061-077-079-121-135-020900-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 224
VALID 020725Z - 020840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 664.
..EDWARDS..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-019-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-061-063-067-069-071-
083-085-095-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-141-145-
147-149-020840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-020840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 224
VALID 020645Z - 020740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE UPCOMING SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
664.
..EDWARDS..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-019-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-061-063-067-069-071-
083-085-095-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-141-145-
147-149-020740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-020740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 224
VALID 020530Z - 020640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-019-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-061-063-067-069-071-
083-085-095-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-141-145-
147-149-020640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-020640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 224
VALID 020440Z - 020540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-019-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-061-063-067-069-071-
083-085-095-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-141-145-
147-149-020540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-020540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.