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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...TWO SVR MCS/S ARE FCST TO AFFECT WW AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS -- WITH SOME TIME OFFSET BUT SPATIAL
OVERLAP BETWEEN THEM ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MS. BOWING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM NOW OVER CENTRAL MS...AND LARGER/VERY INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY
DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS OVER E TX -- EACH WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY
MOIST...BUOYANT AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27045.
...EDWARDS/EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 232 SEVERE TSTM AL LA MS 031245Z - 032000Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50WSW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 20WNW BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /35WSW BTR - 9W VUZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 30239351 33668872 33668541 30239033
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 232 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 232
VALID 031825Z - 031940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ESF
TO 25 SE PIB TO 50 SE MEI TO 45 E MEI TO 30 NE MEI TO 35 WNW BHM.
..SPC..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-021-063-065-073-091-105-117-119-125-031940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHILTON GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON MARENGO
PERRY SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA
$$
LAC001-003-005-009-019-033-037-039-047-053-055-063-077-091-097-
105-117-121-125-031940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-035-073-091-113-147-157-031940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE FORREST LAMAR
MARION PIKE WALTHALL
WILKINSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 232
VALID 031730Z - 031840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ESF
TO 30 WSW PIB TO 20 S MEI TO 40 SE GWO.
..SPC..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-021-057-063-065-073-075-091-105-107-117-119-125-127-
031840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHILTON FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARENGO PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
LAC001-003-005-009-019-033-037-039-047-053-055-063-077-091-097-
105-117-121-125-031840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-007-019-023-035-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-103-105-113-
147-157-159-031840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW
CLARKE FORREST JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PIKE
WALTHALL WILKINSON WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 232
VALID 031640Z - 031740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ESF
TO 25 NE MCB TO 30 NNW PIB TO 5 NE JAN TO 20 NW JAN.
..SPC..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-021-057-063-065-073-075-091-105-107-117-119-125-127-
031740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHILTON FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARENGO PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
LAC001-003-005-009-019-033-037-039-047-053-055-063-077-091-097-
103-105-117-121-125-031740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC005-007-019-023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-079-087-091-
099-101-103-105-113-121-123-129-147-157-159-031740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW
CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LOWNDES MARION
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SMITH WALTHALL
WILKINSON WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 232
VALID 031445Z - 031540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 686
..SPC..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...LCH...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-021-057-063-065-073-075-091-105-107-117-119-125-127-
031540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHILTON FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARENGO PERRY
PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER
$$
LAC001-003-005-009-019-025-029-033-037-039-041-047-053-055-063-
065-077-083-091-097-103-105-107-117-121-125-031540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-007-019-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-
069-073-075-077-079-085-087-091-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-
129-147-149-157-159-031540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PIKE RANKIN SCOTT
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WARREN WILKINSON WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
