Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 420 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MOLINE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN IL. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME
BACKING OF THE FLOW ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL...MAY RESULT IN A
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH THAT COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF EXISTING INSTABILITY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 232 TORNADO IL 032120Z - 040500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
35NNE CMI/CHAMPAIGN IL/ - 65SSW MLI/MOLINE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /44W BVT - 46NNE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 39498806 39569101 41599093 41508798
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 232 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 232
VALID 040340Z - 040440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DNV
TO 20 E SPI TO 40 SE UIN.
..PETERS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-017-039-057-067-071-073-095-107-109-113-123-125-129-131-
137-143-155-167-169-171-175-179-187-203-040440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CASS DE WITT
FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX LOGAN
MCDONOUGH MCLEAN MARSHALL
MASON MENARD MERCER
MORGAN PEORIA PUTNAM
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK TAZEWELL WARREN
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 232
VALID 040235Z - 040340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-017-019-039-057-067-071-073-095-107-109-113-115-123-125-
129-131-137-143-147-155-167-169-171-175-179-187-203-040340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CASS CHAMPAIGN
DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY KNOX
LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN
MACON MARSHALL MASON
MENARD MERCER MORGAN
PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK TAZEWELL WARREN
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 232
VALID 040125Z - 040240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-017-019-039-057-067-071-073-095-107-109-113-115-123-125-
129-131-137-143-147-155-167-169-171-175-179-187-203-040240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CASS CHAMPAIGN
DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY KNOX
LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN
MACON MARSHALL MASON
MENARD MERCER MORGAN
PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK TAZEWELL WARREN
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 232
VALID 040045Z - 040140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-017-019-039-057-067-071-073-095-107-109-113-115-123-125-
129-131-137-143-147-155-167-169-171-175-179-187-203-040140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CASS CHAMPAIGN
DE WITT FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY KNOX
LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCLEAN
MACON MARSHALL MASON
MENARD MERCER MORGAN
PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
STARK TAZEWELL WARREN
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 232
VALID 032225Z - 032340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/03/12
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-017-019-039-053-057-063-067-071-073-095-099-105-107-109-
113-115-123-125-129-131-137-143-147-155-167-169-171-175-179-187-
203-032340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CASS CHAMPAIGN
DE WITT FORD FULTON
GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCDONOUGH
MCLEAN MACON MARSHALL
MASON MENARD MERCER
MORGAN PEORIA PIATT
PUTNAM SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT STARK TAZEWELL
WARREN WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
