Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS NEWD ACROSS SRN IA. OTHER STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF
MO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS WELL. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
MODULATED BY MATURE STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE VORTICITY IS ENHANCED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 233 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 281925Z - 290300Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SSW CNK/CONCORDIA KS/ - 60E IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /19NNW SLN - 16NNW UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 40369783 41259141 38939141 38049783
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 233 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 233
VALID 290250Z - 290340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CNK
TO 20 WNW TOP TO 25 SW CDJ TO 20 SSW UIN.
..GOSS..05/29/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-111-117-123-125-135-159-173-175-177-179-185-
290340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR LEE LUCAS
MAHASKA MARION MONROE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-043-085-117-131-149-157-161-201-290340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DONIPHAN JACKSON
MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-
115-117-121-127-129-147-171-197-199-205-211-227-290340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CLARK
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT KNOX LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND
SHELBY SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 233
VALID 290140Z - 290240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW UIN
TO 25 SSW SLN.
..KERR..05/29/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-057-071-087-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-123-
125-135-139-145-159-173-175-177-179-183-185-290240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES FREMONT
HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC005-009-013-027-029-041-043-053-061-085-105-117-131-143-149-
157-159-161-167-169-201-290240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BARTON BROWN
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY
JACKSON LINCOLN MARSHALL
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-
115-117-121-127-129-147-171-197-199-205-211-227-290240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CLARK
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT KNOX LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND
SHELBY SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-290240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 233
VALID 290000Z - 290140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/28/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-057-071-087-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-123-
125-135-139-145-159-173-175-177-179-183-185-290140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES FREMONT
HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC005-009-013-027-029-031-041-043-045-053-059-061-085-087-091-
103-105-107-111-117-121-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-167-169-
177-197-201-209-290140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BARTON BROWN
CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RICE RILEY RUSSELL
SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-013-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-045-047-049-
051-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-
117-121-127-129-135-137-147-159-165-171-173-175-177-195-197-199-
205-211-227-290140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BATES BOONE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY
CARROLL CASS CHARITON
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLE COOPER DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HENRY HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MERCER MONITEAU
MONROE NODAWAY PETTIS
PLATTE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-290140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 233
VALID 282255Z - 282340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/28/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-057-071-087-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-123-
125-135-139-145-159-173-175-177-179-183-185-282340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES FREMONT
HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-
111-117-121-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-169-177-197-201-209-
282340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-013-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-045-047-049-
051-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-
117-121-127-129-135-137-147-159-165-171-173-175-177-195-197-199-
205-211-227-282340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BATES BOONE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY
CARROLL CASS CHARITON
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLE COOPER DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HENRY HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MERCER MONITEAU
MONROE NODAWAY PETTIS
PLATTE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-282340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 233
VALID 282200Z - 282340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/28/13
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-057-071-087-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-123-
125-135-139-145-159-173-175-177-179-183-185-282340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES FREMONT
HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-
111-117-121-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-169-177-197-201-209-
282340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN
LYON MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-013-019-021-025-027-033-037-041-045-047-049-
051-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-
117-121-127-129-135-137-147-159-165-171-173-175-177-195-197-199-
205-211-227-282340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BATES BOONE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY
CARROLL CASS CHARITON
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLE COOPER DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HENRY HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MERCER MONITEAU
MONROE NODAWAY PETTIS
PLATTE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-282340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.