Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WEST-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHER GEORGIA
EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1135 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 232...
DISCUSSION...MATURE AND INTENSE MCV AND ASSOCIATED DERECHO IS MOVING
ACROSS MS AT ROUGHLY 60KT AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO AL BEFORE
APPROACHING THE GA BORDER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE BOWING LINE OF
CONVECTION INTO AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF APEX. DOWNSTREAM...AIR
MASS EAST TO GA/SC SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE GIVEN DIURNAL
HEATING AND EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO FUEL INTENSE
STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING COLD POOL AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TRAILING EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26055.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 233 SEVERE TSTM AL GA LA MS CW 031635Z - 032100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15SE GPT/GULFPORT MS/ - 5NNE ATL/ATLANTA GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /40SW SJI - 5NNE ATL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26055.
LAT...LON 30239031 33688587 33688291 30238747
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 233 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 233
VALID 031940Z - 032040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ASD
TO 25 W GZH TO 10 NNW SEM TO 35 N SEM.
..SPC..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-
047-051-053-055-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-115-121-123-
131-032040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
ETOWAH LEE LOWNDES
MACON MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WILCOX
$$
GAC013-015-035-045-053-055-057-063-067-077-079-089-097-113-115-
117-121-129-133-135-143-145-149-151-159-169-171-193-197-199-207-
211-215-217-219-223-231-233-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-
285-293-297-307-032040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARROW BARTOW BUTTS
CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA
CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB
COWETA CRAWFORD DEKALB
DOUGLAS FAYETTE FLOYD
FORSYTH FULTON GORDON
GREENE GWINNETT HARALSON
HARRIS HEARD HENRY
JASPER JONES LAMAR
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MONROE MORGAN MUSCOGEE
NEWTON OCONEE PAULDING
PIKE POLK PUTNAM
ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TROUP
UPSON WALTON WEBSTER
$$
LAC103-032040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. TAMMANY
$$
MSC039-045-047-059-109-131-032040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER STONE
$$
GMZ530-630-032040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.