Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW 233...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NRN
MO/SRN IA AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES ALONG A DIFFUSE/REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIFTING NWD INTO IA. 00Z TOP SOUNDING IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN/WRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO
BANDS/CLUSTERS TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 234 TORNADO IA IL KS MO 040010Z - 040600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NNW STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 35SE BRL/BURLINGTON IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /45ENE PWE - 45NE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 41389527 41369066 39479066 39509527
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 234 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 234
VALID 040435Z - 040540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 688.
..PETERS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-161-040540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-029-031-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-
121-123-125-135-139-159-163-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-
040540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CEDAR CLARKE
DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES
HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK
LEE LOUISA LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MONROE MUSCATINE RINGGOLD
SCOTT TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC043-040540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-163-171-173-175-177-197-199-
205-211-227-040540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLARK CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE NODAWAY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 234
VALID 040345Z - 040440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-161-040440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-029-031-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-
121-123-125-135-139-159-163-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-
040440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CEDAR CLARKE
DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES
HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK
LEE LOUISA LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MONROE MUSCATINE RINGGOLD
SCOTT TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC043-040440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-163-171-173-175-177-197-199-
205-211-227-040440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLARK CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE NODAWAY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 234
VALID 040240Z - 040340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-161-040340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC001-003-007-029-031-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-
121-123-125-135-159-163-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-040340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CEDAR CLARKE
DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES
HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK
LEE LOUISA LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MONROE RINGGOLD SCOTT
TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
KSC043-040340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-163-171-173-175-177-197-199-
205-211-227-040340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLARK CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE NODAWAY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 234
VALID 040125Z - 040240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/04/12
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-040240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
$$
IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-121-
123-125-135-159-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-040240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY
JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MONROE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KSC043-040240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-163-171-173-175-177-197-199-
205-211-227-040240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLARK CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
KNOX LEWIS LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE NODAWAY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.