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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 735 AM UNTIL 200
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
HOUMA LOUISIANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 237. WATCH NUMBER 237 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
735 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW
HEAVY-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS -- IS FCST TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE INVOF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT
BEHIND BY DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS OF PREVIOUS DAY. MEANWHILE
MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER...WHICH
ALREADY APPEARS TO BE NEARLY UNCAPPED FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS...WILL
BE SUBTLY HEATED AND DESTABILIZED FURTHER IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EDWARDS/EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 238 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 041235Z - 041900Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WNW HUM/HOUMA LA/ - 20SSE DHN/DOTHAN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /44WSW MSY - 57WNW TLH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
REPLACES WW 237..AL FL MS
LAT...LON 30509105 31858531 30268531 28909105
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 238 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 238
VALID 041750Z - 041840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HUM
TO 15 NNW BVE TO 15 ESE MOB TO 15 NNW MAI.
..SPC..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-069-041840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-041840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
LAC051-057-075-109-041840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE PLAQUEMINES
TERREBONNE
$$
GMZ550-555-630-650-655-750-041840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 238
VALID 041625Z - 041740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HUM TO
30 NE MOB TO 35 NNE CEW TO 20 SW TOI.
..SPC..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-097-041740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-041740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-109-041740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
TERREBONNE
$$
MSC045-047-059-041740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
$$
GMZ530-550-555-630-650-655-750-041740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 238
VALID 041425Z - 041540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-041540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER COFFEE
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE
$$
FLC005-013-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-041540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
LAC005-007-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109-117-
041540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
$$
MSC039-041-045-047-059-109-131-041540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER
STONE
$$
GMZ530-550-555-630-650-655-750-041540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
