Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF SOUTH HILL
VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH HILL VIRGINIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...
DISCUSSION...RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ALONG STRONG WARM
FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT TSTMS
TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE TIDEWATER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF UP TO 50KT ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE
FRONT. STORMS CROSSING TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR HAIL PRODUCTION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 239 TORNADO VA CW 041630Z - 042200Z
AXIS..130 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ - 30ESE AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM E/W /35W RIC - 60S RIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 37457568 36507520 36507988 37458041
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 239 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 239
VALID 041940Z - 042040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ECG
TO 5 NNW ORF TO 30 SW RIC TO 10 W RIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 700
..SMITH..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC001-036-073-095-097-115-127-131-149-181-199-550-570-650-670-
700-710-730-735-740-810-830-042040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK CHARLES CITY GLOUCESTER
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN MATHEWS
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON PRINCE GEORGE
SURRY YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS HAMPTON
HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
PETERSBURG POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ631-632-654-656-042040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 239
VALID 041845Z - 041940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO
35 SSE RIC TO 35 ESE LYH TO 45 SSE CHO.
..SMITH..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC001-007-036-041-049-053-073-087-093-095-097-115-127-131-135-
145-147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-
740-760-800-810-830-041940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK AMELIA CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE
GLOUCESTER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN MATHEWS
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NOTTOWAY
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS FRANKLIN
HAMPTON HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK PETERSBURG POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ631-632-654-656-041940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.