Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA FLORIDA TO
30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...
DISCUSSION...COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE MCS
APPEARS TO BE GROWING AND SUPPORTING ENHANCED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE. RESULTING BOWING STRUCTURE HAS PICKED UP FORWARD
SPEED AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WITHIN THE
HOUR. ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV/MCS DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SRN GA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT
COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION WITHIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPE 800-1200 J/KG. EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 240 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC 041710Z - 042300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
MAI/MARIANNA FL/ - 30SSE SAV/SAVANNAH GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /45WNW TLH - 26SSE SAV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 31798518 32668100 30798100 29908518
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 240 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 240
VALID 042140Z - 042240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AAF TO
25 E TLH TO 15 NNE VLD TO 20 NW VDI.
..HURLBUT..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-047-079-089-121-042240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
$$
GAC001-003-005-019-025-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-101-103-
109-127-161-179-183-191-209-229-267-279-299-305-042240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BRYAN
BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER
CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH
COFFEE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM
EVANS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS
LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH
MONTGOMERY PIERCE TATTNALL
TOOMBS WARE WAYNE
$$
SCC013-053-042240-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT JASPER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 240
VALID 042040Z - 042140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MAI TO
5 SW MGR TO 35 NE MGR TO 40 W VDI.
..SPC..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-039-047-065-073-079-089-121-042140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA GADSDEN
HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
$$
GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-
075-091-101-103-109-127-155-161-173-179-183-185-191-209-229-267-
271-275-279-299-305-309-042140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY
BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH
CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON
CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE
COOK DODGE ECHOLS
EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN
IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER
LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES
MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PIERCE
TATTNALL TELFAIR THOMAS
TOOMBS WARE WAYNE
WHEELER
$$
SCC013-053-042140-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT JASPER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 240
VALID 041930Z - 042040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S MAI TO
30 SSW ABY TO 10 ENE ABY TO 40 NNE ABY.
..SPC..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-039-047-065-073-079-089-121-042040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA GADSDEN
HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
$$
GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-
071-075-081-087-091-101-103-109-127-131-155-161-173-179-183-185-
191-205-209-229-267-271-275-277-279-287-299-305-309-315-321-
042040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY
BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH
CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON
CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE
COLQUITT COOK CRISP
DECATUR DODGE ECHOLS
EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN
GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LIBERTY LONG
LOWNDES MCINTOSH MITCHELL
MONTGOMERY PIERCE TATTNALL
TELFAIR THOMAS TIFT
TOOMBS TURNER WARE
WAYNE WHEELER WILCOX
WORTH
$$
SCC013-053-042040-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT JASPER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.