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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ROANOKE
RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NEW BERN
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...
DISCUSSION...LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW/WARM
FRONT OVER VA WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
THESE SWWD TRAILING AND EWD MOVING BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT AND EXPECTED CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 241 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 041730Z - 050000Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
5N RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 40WSW EWN/NEW BERN NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM EITHER SIDE /62SSW RIC - 31NNE ILM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 36527581 34867584 34817955 36477959
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 241 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 241
VALID 042300Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-061-063-065-
069-073-077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-125-127-
131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-157-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-
195-050040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE
CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL
CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC093-175-550-620-710-740-800-810-050040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISLE OF WIGHT SOUTHAMPTON
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE FRANKLIN NORFOLK
PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
$$
AMZ130-135-158-ANZ633-656-658-050040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 241
VALID 042140Z - 042240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-061-063-065-
069-073-077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-125-127-
131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-157-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-
195-042240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE
CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL
CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-158-ANZ633-658-042240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 241
VALID 041940Z - 042040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/04/09
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-061-063-065-
069-073-077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-125-127-
131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-157-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-
195-042040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE
CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL
CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-158-ANZ633-658-042040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
