Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1105 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 241. WATCH NUMBER 241 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1105 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 243...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF 30 KT BRANCH OF THE LLJ. STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PRIOR TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SLOWLY INCREASES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM NE 050405Z - 051000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10SSW BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/ - 35NE LNK/LINCOLN NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /47ENE LBF - 25W OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
REPLACES WW 241..IA NE
LAT...LON 42099969 42009629 40409629 40509969
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 244 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 244
VALID 050525Z - 050640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EAR
TO 30 WSW ONL.
..JEWELL..05/05/12
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-071-077-079-
081-093-099-109-119-121-125-131-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-167-
173-175-177-179-183-185-050640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BUFFALO
BURT BUTLER CASS
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE
GARFIELD GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY
LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK
NANCE OTOE PLATTE
POLK SALINE SARPY
SAUNDERS SEWARD SHERMAN
STANTON THURSTON VALLEY
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHEELER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.