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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER A LARGE AREA OF AR
AND NORTHERN MS...ON NOSE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND IN
REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD. BY LATE
TONIGHT OVER WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 248 SEVERE TSTM AR MS OK TN TX 060330Z - 061100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 35ENE TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /54NNW TXK - 38WSW MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 35479452 35618819 33298819 33159452
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 248 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 248
VALID 060950Z - 061040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSL
TO 25 NW UOX TO 35 E MEM TO 50 E MKL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 725.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-093-117-137-139-141-061040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON MARSHALL
PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-077-109-061040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HENDERSON
MCNAIRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 248
VALID 060845Z - 060940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSL
TO 25 NE UOX TO 20 N DEQ TO 30 N DEQ TO 25 E LIT TO 5 SW MEM TO
15 WNW MKL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 725.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC051-077-085-095-097-113-117-125-060940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARLAND LEE LONOKE
MONROE MONTGOMERY POLK
PRAIRIE SALINE
$$
MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-060940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON DESOTO
MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-077-109-157-060940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HENDERSON
MCNAIRY SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 248
VALID 060735Z - 060840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MSL TO
60 ENE PBF TO 20 NW DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 725.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC023-029-031-035-037-045-051-063-067-071-077-083-085-093-095-
097-105-111-113-115-117-119-123-125-127-141-145-147-149-
060840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
GARLAND INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JOHNSON LEE LOGAN
LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY POINSETT
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-060840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON DESOTO
MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-060840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 248
VALID 060535Z - 060640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-041-
043-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-
085-091-093-095-097-099-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-123-
125-127-133-139-141-145-147-149-060640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LEE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN LONOKE MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT SEVIER UNION
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-033-043-057-071-081-083-093-
095-097-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-151-155-161-
060640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CLAY COAHOMA DESOTO
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE MARSHALL
MONROE MONTGOMERY PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
OKC089-060640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-060640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
TXC037-387-060640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.