Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1255 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE PERSISTING AHEAD OF MAIN MCS
EVOLVING OVER AR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG AND
WITH INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INTO SRN AR/NRN MS...SURFACE
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN SRN 1/3 OF SVR TSTM WATCH
249...PRIOR TO MAIN POSSIBLY LINEAR MCS PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 250 TORNADO AR MS OK TX 060555Z - 061100Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SSW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 35ESE TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /28WNW TXK - 39NNE IGB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 34299456 34658820 33508820 33139456
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 250 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 250
VALID 060955Z - 061040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HOT TO
40 SSE HOT TO 20 SSW PBF TO 15 ENE PBF TO 40 E PBF TO 45 NNE GLH
TO 30 WSW UOX TO 5 W UOX TO 20 NNE UOX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 726.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-057-059-061-073-
079-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-061040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
MSC011-013-015-017-025-043-057-071-081-083-095-097-115-133-135-
145-151-155-161-061040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CLAY GRENADA
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
LEFLORE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PONTOTOC SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
OKC089-061040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-061040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 250
VALID 060845Z - 060940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW HOT TO
10 NE PBF TO 60 N GLH TO 40 SW MEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 726.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-079-081-091-099-103-107-109-133-139-060940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PHILLIPS PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
MSC011-013-015-017-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-095-097-107-115-
119-133-135-145-151-155-161-060940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CLAY COAHOMA
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PANOLA PONTOTOC
QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
OKC089-060940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-060940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 250
VALID 060730Z - 060840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-079-081-091-099-103-107-109-133-139-060840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PHILLIPS PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
MSC011-013-015-017-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-095-097-107-115-
119-133-135-145-151-155-161-060840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CLAY COAHOMA
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PANOLA PONTOTOC
QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
OKC089-060840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-060840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.