Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST E OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL TX. FLOW ALOFT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK/ANTICYCLONIC...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 F
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG. THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTS THAT INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED...BUT THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES/LARGE CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF BOTH STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 250 SEVERE TSTM TX 052205Z - 060300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ESE JCT/JUNCTION TX/ - 25NE BWD/BROWNWOOD TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43ESE JCT - 67ESE ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015.
LAT...LON 30279998 32049958 32049770 30279815
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 250 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 250
VALID 060245Z - 060300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 250 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060300Z.
..HURLBUT..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-049-053-083-093-095-099-171-193-267-281-299-307-319-327-
333-411-060300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS SAN SABA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 250
VALID 060145Z - 060240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-049-053-083-093-095-099-171-193-267-281-299-307-319-327-
333-411-060240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS SAN SABA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 250
VALID 060035Z - 060140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-049-053-083-093-095-099-171-193-267-281-299-307-319-327-
333-411-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS SAN SABA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
