Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 405 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF ROME GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249...WW 250...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG AND
NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM NRN AL INTO NWRN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND WW
LIES WITHIN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL IS PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS. ADDITIONAL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WW BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK
AS POSSIBLE BOWING MCS MOVES ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BRING ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE MID MORNING...AND POSSIBLY BEGIN
IMPACTING NRN/WRN GA THEREAFTER.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 251 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 060905Z - 061500Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW MSL/MUSCLE SHOALS AL/ - 30S RMG/ROME GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /47SW MSL - 40WNW ATL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 35028823 34708516 33118516 33438823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 251 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 251
VALID 061340Z - 061440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CBM
TO 25 SW HSV TO 30 NW HSV.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-015-019-027-029-043-049-055-057-063-065-071-073-079-
083-089-095-103-107-111-115-117-119-121-125-127-133-061440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN
CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE GREENE HALE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-223-233-295-313-061440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY PAULDING
POLK WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 251
VALID 061225Z - 061340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 728
..GARNER..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-
079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-
061340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-223-233-295-313-061340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY PAULDING
POLK WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 251
VALID 061135Z - 061240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-
079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-
061240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-223-233-295-313-061240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY PAULDING
POLK WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 251
VALID 061045Z - 061140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-
079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-
061140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-223-233-295-313-061140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY PAULDING
POLK WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.