Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL...NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 530 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249. WATCH NUMBER 249 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 530 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 251...
DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO IN FORMER WW 249
IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SVR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KT AS IT MOVES OVER AND S
OF SFC WARM FRONT OUTLINED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 727. THIS MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING
WIND...POSSIBLE DERECHO...OVER PORTIONS WW AREA. COUNTY WW AREA
FANS OUTWARD WITH SEWD EXTENT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
SPREAD/EXPANSION OF DRIVING COLD POOL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 30040.
...EDWARDS/EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 252 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 061030Z - 061800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55WSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 60NE IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /34E SPS - 20WSW MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30040.
REPLACES WW 249..AR OK TX
LAT...LON 34849791 33229237 31479237 33119791
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 252 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 252
VALID 061750Z - 061800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW IER
TO 35 SW MLU.
WW 252 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 061800Z.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-069-127-061800-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL NATCHITOCHES WINN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 252
VALID 061640Z - 061740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GGG TO
35 N IER TO 20 W MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 733
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC021-031-049-069-073-081-085-127-061740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL DE SOTO JACKSON
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER
SABINE WINN
$$
TXC005-073-347-365-401-403-405-419-061740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 252
VALID 061545Z - 061640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW TYR
TO 30 NW GGG TO 45 W MLU TO 25 WNW MLU.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-017-021-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-119-127-061640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CADDO CALDWELL
DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER
SABINE WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-073-183-203-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-061640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 252
VALID 061345Z - 061440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SPS TO
30 W TXK TO 30 ENE TXK.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-061440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-
061440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-063-067-073-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-
257-315-343-347-365-379-397-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-467-499-
061440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE COLLIN COOKE
DELTA DENTON FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RAINS
ROCKWALL RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 252
VALID 061225Z - 061340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SPS
TO 20 E DUA TO 10 SW DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 728
..GARNER..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-061340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-
061340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WINN
$$
OKC013-067-085-089-095-061340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN JEFFERSON LOVE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-223-
231-257-277-315-337-343-347-365-379-387-397-401-403-405-419-423-
449-459-467-497-499-061340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN
COOKE DELTA DENTON
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MONTAGUE MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 252
VALID 061135Z - 061240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FSI TO
10 SE ADM TO 40 NNE PRX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 727.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-061240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-
061240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE
UNION WEBSTER WINN
$$
OKC013-019-023-033-067-085-089-095-061240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW
COTTON JEFFERSON LOVE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-077-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-
223-231-257-277-315-337-343-347-365-379-387-397-401-403-405-419-
423-449-459-467-485-497-499-061240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE CLAY
COLLIN COOKE DELTA
DENTON FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MONTAGUE
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WICHITA
WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.