Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 545 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONROE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 248...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 250.
WATCH NUMBER 248 250 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 545 AM CDT.
CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...
DISCUSSION...LARGE LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST EWD MOVING BOW SEGMENTS MOVING INTO
AL AND ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY
STRONG AND AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST
SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE AS CAP ERODES THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS MS AND SHOULD STORMS BECOME DISCRETE AWAY FROM SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED
BY A TORNADO WATCH LATER TODAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 253 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TN 061045Z - 061800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35ENE CBM/COLUMBUS MS/ - 30NW MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /38ENE IGB - 26NW MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
REPLACES WW 248..AR MS OK TN TX
REPLACES WW 250..AR MS OK TX
LAT...LON 32958788 31959240 33689240 34688788
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 253 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 253
VALID 061645Z - 061740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MLU TO
15 SE CBM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 733
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC041-065-083-107-061740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN MADISON RICHLAND
TENSAS
$$
MSC007-021-049-069-079-089-099-103-121-123-149-159-163-061740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CLAIBORNE HINDS
KEMPER LEAKE MADISON
NESHOBA NOXUBEE RANKIN
SCOTT WARREN WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 253
VALID 061550Z - 061640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MLU
TO 10 E CBM.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-061640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-021-049-051-053-055-069-079-089-099-103-121-123-125-149-
159-163-061640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CLAIBORNE HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LEAKE MADISON
NESHOBA NOXUBEE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY WARREN
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 253
VALID 061345Z - 061440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GLH
TO 40 ESE GWO TO 25 SSE CBM.
..DIAL..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-025-041-043-079-103-061440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW LINCOLN OUACHITA
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-061440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-015-021-049-051-053-055-069-079-083-089-099-103-121-123-
125-133-149-151-159-163-061440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CLAIBORNE
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA KEMPER LEAKE
LEFLORE MADISON NESHOBA
NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 253
VALID 061230Z - 061340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE LLQ TO
10 E GLH TO 40 ENE GWO TO 10 SW MSL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 729
..GARNER..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-025-041-043-079-103-061340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW LINCOLN OUACHITA
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-061340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-015-017-019-021-025-049-051-053-055-057-069-079-081-083-
087-089-095-097-099-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
061340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLAY
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA KEMPER
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
TNC055-099-181-061340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILES LAWRENCE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 253
VALID 061135Z - 061240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE LLQ TO
10 ENE GLH TO 40 ENE GWO TO 15 E TUP TO 25 W MSL.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-025-041-043-079-103-061240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW LINCOLN OUACHITA
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-107-123-061240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-015-017-019-021-025-049-051-053-055-057-069-079-081-083-
087-089-095-097-099-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
061240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLAY
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA KEMPER
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
TNC055-099-181-061240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILES LAWRENCE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.