Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL
WELLS TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...WW 251...WW
252...WW 253...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING LLJ.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 254 TORNADO TX 301955Z - 310300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80N MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 50WSW MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /26E SPS - 51E ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 33939701 32509783 32509988 33939912
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 254 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 254
VALID 310050Z - 310140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW FTW TO
35 WNW MWL TO 20 E SPS.
..DIAL..05/31/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC077-097-147-181-237-277-337-497-310140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COOKE FANNIN
GRAYSON JACK LAMAR
MONTAGUE WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 254
VALID 302345Z - 310040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..05/30/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-023-077-097-207-237-253-337-363-417-429-447-485-497-503-
310040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE HASKELL JACK
JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.