Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 510 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 252...WW 253...
DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG
COUPLE WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTS SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. AS STRONG JET MAX ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 254 TORNADO AR LA MS 022210Z - 030500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10SSW SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/ - 15SE JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /28S EIC - 25SE JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 33189390 33028990 31298990 31459390
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 254 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 254
VALID 030330Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SHV
TO 5 SW ELD.
..SMITH..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-030440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-030440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-021-029-037-049-053-055-063-085-121-125-127-149-030440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE COPIAH
FRANKLIN HINDS HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LINCOLN
RANKIN SHARKEY SIMPSON
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 254
VALID 030225Z - 030340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-139-030340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-030340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-021-029-037-049-053-055-063-085-121-125-127-149-030340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE COPIAH
FRANKLIN HINDS HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LINCOLN
RANKIN SHARKEY SIMPSON
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
