Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA
LARGE PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROBEN
HOOD MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 253...WW 254...WW 255...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD THRU SRN LM INTO NWRN IND. WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN LINE OF STORMS ALONG FRONT. TORNADOS ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 256 TORNADO IN MI LM 030115Z - 030600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE RQB/ROBEN HOOD MI/ - 45WSW FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /42SE TVC - 39WSW FWA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 44118362 40728473 40728722 44118623
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 256 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 256
VALID 030340Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE JXN
TO 15 SSW AZO TO 30 ESE MBL.
..SMITH..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...APX...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC011-015-017-025-035-037-045-051-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-
085-107-111-117-123-133-145-155-030440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARENAC BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON
EATON GLADWIN GRATIOT
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAKE MECOSTA MIDLAND
MONTCALM NEWAYGO OSCEOLA
SAGINAW SHIAWASSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 256
VALID 030240Z - 030340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LAF
TO 20 SW SBN TO 10 WSW BEH TO 30 S MKG TO 15 NW MKG.
..SMITH..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...APX...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-017-033-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-141-149-
151-169-179-181-183-030340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN CASS
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-037-045-051-057-059-065-
067-073-075-077-081-085-105-107-111-117-121-123-127-133-139-145-
149-155-159-030340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ARENAC BARRY
BAY BERRIEN BRANCH
CALHOUN CASS CLARE
CLINTON EATON GLADWIN
GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT LAKE
MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND
MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA
SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE
VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ844-845-846-847-848-030340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
