Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALBANY GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 255...WW 256...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE ORGANIZING THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM
W-CNTRL AL TO SWRN GA WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG A SWD-MOVING COLD
POOL. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE CHARACTER
OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FOSTER HAIL PRODUCTION AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 257 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 061750Z - 070100Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55WSW GZH/EVERGREEN AL/ - 30SSE ABY/ALBANY GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /33NE SJI - 35SSE ABY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36020.
LAT...LON 31698790 31708401 30548401 30538790
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 257 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 257
VALID 062235Z - 062340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MOB TO
20 E CEW TO 25 NW TLH TO 20 SSW MGR.
..HURLBUT..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-062340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN
$$
FLC005-013-033-037-039-045-065-073-077-079-091-113-129-131-133-
062340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY
MADISON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC019-173-185-062340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN LANIER LOWNDES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 257
VALID 062025Z - 062140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GZH TO
15 ESE ABY.
..LEITMAN..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-039-053-061-069-062140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN COVINGTON ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HOUSTON
$$
FLC013-033-039-059-063-065-073-077-079-091-113-131-133-062140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GADSDEN
HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-019-027-071-075-087-099-131-173-185-201-205-253-275-277-
321-062140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BERRIEN BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
EARLY GRADY LANIER
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 257
VALID 061940Z - 062040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-
062040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE
COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
MONROE WILCOX
$$
FLC033-039-059-063-091-113-131-133-062040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA GADSDEN HOLMES
JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
062040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 257
VALID 061840Z - 061940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/06/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-
061940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE
COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
MONROE WILCOX
$$
FLC033-039-059-063-091-113-131-133-061940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA GADSDEN HOLMES
JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
061940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SEMINOLE TERRELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.