Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNING RAPIDLY
ERN KS ON 30KT LLJ. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY SERN NEB EWD INTO
SWRN IA WILL BE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS
LIKELY...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE INTO RETURNING
INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL AND
TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE INTO
GREATER INSTABILITY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 258 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 071845Z - 080100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30W FNB/FALLS CITY NE/ - 35SSE IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /8SSE PWE - 33SSE IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 41369616 40939230 38339230 38779616
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 258 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 258
VALID 072330Z - 080040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MHK TO
35 SSW FNB TO 15 SW FNB TO 20 NNW FNB TO 10 WNW SDA TO 20 NW LWD
TO 20 SE OTM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 747
..JEWELL..05/07/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-053-145-159-173-185-080040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DECATUR PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-085-087-091-103-209-080040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-
087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-
197-211-227-080040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PETTIS PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
NEC147-080040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 258
VALID 072250Z - 072340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E BIE TO
30 WNW FNB TO 35 W SDA TO 10 NW OMA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 747
..JEWELL..05/07/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-007-039-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-185-072340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE
DECATUR FREMONT MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-085-087-091-103-131-209-072340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH NEMAHA
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-
087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-
197-211-227-072340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PETTIS PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
NEC025-127-131-133-147-072340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 258
VALID 072025Z - 072140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/07/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-007-039-053-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-185-072140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE
DECATUR FREMONT MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION
WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-043-045-085-087-091-103-131-209-072140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH NEMAHA
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-
087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-
197-211-227-072140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PETTIS PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
NEC025-055-097-127-131-133-147-153-072140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DOUGLAS JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SARPY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.