Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 245 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SALINA KANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST MISSOURI ATTM...WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
50-PLUS KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT STORMS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG QG FORCING TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 259 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 310745Z - 311300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5WNW SLN/SALINA KS/ - 55ESE CDJ/CHILLICOTHE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /9SW SLN - 38S IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 39549773 40249262 38799262 38099773
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 259 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 259
VALID 311140Z - 311240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW OJC
TO 5 S FLV TO 35 SW CDJ TO 35 NNW COU.
..GOSS..05/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC091-103-121-209-311240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC033-037-047-053-089-095-101-107-159-177-195-311240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CASS CLAY
COOPER HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PETTIS
RAY SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 259
VALID 311030Z - 311140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW EMP
TO 30 NW TOP TO 20 SE FNB.
..GOSS..05/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-121-139-177-197-209-
311140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MIAMI OSAGE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-
159-165-175-177-195-311140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON COOPER HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
PETTIS PLATTE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 259
VALID 310930Z - 311040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/31/13
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-017-027-029-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-
113-115-117-121-127-131-139-143-149-161-169-177-197-201-209-
311040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL
MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-
159-165-175-177-195-311040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON COOPER HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
PETTIS PLATTE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.