Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
MOBILE ALABAMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AL. AS THE LOW
LEVELS DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
THE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LINEAR GIVEN
THE TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 259 SEVERE TSTM AL FL CW 031210Z - 031800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15W MOB/MOBILE AL/ - 35S MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /8WSW SJI - 27S MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 31848850 32938640 30628640 29528850
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 259 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 259
VALID 031720Z - 031840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BVE
TO 30 S GZH TO 20 NNE CEW.
..KERR..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC033-091-113-031840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ655-031840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 259
VALID 031635Z - 031740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT TO
30 ENE MOB TO 40 E GZH.
..KERR..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-039-031740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN COVINGTON
$$
FLC033-091-113-031740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ655-031740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 259
VALID 031440Z - 031540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MOB TO
45 N MGM.
..KERR..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-035-039-041-051-053-085-101-031540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW
ELMORE ESCAMBIA LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY
$$
FLC033-091-113-031540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ655-031540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 259
VALID 031345Z - 031440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/03/08
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-013-021-025-035-037-039-041-047-051-053-085-091-099-
101-105-131-031440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER
CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-031440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ655-031440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.