Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 261 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 051835Z - 060200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW CAO/CLAYTON NM/ - 45WSW CNM/CARLSBAD NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /23SSE TBE - 68ENE ELP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 36900194 32060361 32060634 36900483
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 261 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 261
VALID 060025Z - 060140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-057-
059-060140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE
UNION
$$
OKC025-060140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC017-079-111-117-205-341-359-369-375-381-421-501-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HARTLEY MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 261
VALID 052240Z - 052340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/05/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-057-
059-052340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE
UNION
$$
OKC025-052340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC017-079-111-117-205-341-359-369-375-381-421-501-052340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HARTLEY MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 261
VALID 052015Z - 052140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CORFIDI..05/05/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-057-
059-052140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE
UNION
$$
OKC025-052140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC017-079-111-117-205-341-359-369-375-381-421-501-052140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY COCHRAN DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HARTLEY MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.