Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 258. WATCH NUMBER 258 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 735 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING INVOF WEAK W-E
FRONT AND ALONG RELATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN MO AS MODEST
SWLY LLJ VEERS AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE EVE. UPR LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SO STORM COVERAGE MAY
REMAIN LIMITED. BUT ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW WITH
LLJ...AND PROXIMITY OF 50-60 KT WNW MID LVL FLOW. STORMS IN ERN
PART OF WW MAY MERGE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS/DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 261 SEVERE TSTM MO 080035Z - 080700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 45SSE IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /46SE PWE - 41N COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
REPLACES WW 258..IA KS MO NE
LAT...LON 40639538 40369223 38639223 38909538
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 261 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 261
VALID 080450Z - 080540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SZL
TO 40 N COU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 753
..GUYER..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC053-089-159-080540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOPER HOWARD PETTIS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 261
VALID 080245Z - 080340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FNB TO
5 N STJ TO 10 NW LWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 751
..JEWELL..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC001-003-021-025-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-089-
095-101-107-115-117-121-159-165-175-177-195-211-080340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CARROLL CHARITON
CLAY CLINTON COOPER
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
PETTIS PLATTE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE SULLIVAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 261
VALID 080125Z - 080240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-
087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-147-159-165-175-177-195-211-227-
080240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON NODAWAY
PETTIS PLATTE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.