Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW
261...WW 262...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY OVER NW
KS OVERNIGHT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN FRINGE OF AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG
UNDIRECTIONAL WLY MID LVL FLOW AND SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL AS STORMS ENCOUNTER INCREASING MOISTURE
INFLOW WITH ESE EXTENT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 28040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 263 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 080415Z - 081200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20WNW GLD/GOODLAND KS/ - 60NE RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /17WNW GLD - 38NNW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28040.
LAT...LON 40270205 40279801 38689801 38660205
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 263 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 263
VALID 080630Z - 080740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-063-065-071-089-109-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-
183-193-199-203-080740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL
LOGAN MITCHELL NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC061-065-083-087-145-080740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS HARLAN
HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
