Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 262. WATCH NUMBER 262 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 830 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 263...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SEWD OUT OF KS INTO
NWRN OK. WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40KT AND
CONTINUING FLUX OF MDTLY UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS
WOULD INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 264 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 060130Z - 060700Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW GAG/GAGE OK/ - 25S HOB/HOBBS NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /39E LBL - 27N INK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
REPLACES WW 262..CO KS
LAT...LON 37009851 32310168 32310476 37000177
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 264 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 264
VALID 060655Z - 060740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ROW
TO 20 NW LBB TO 30 ESE PVW TO 20 WNW CDS TO 40 E LBL.
..BROYLES..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-060740-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
OKC003-043-045-047-053-059-093-129-151-153-060740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRANT HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC075-079-087-107-165-211-219-295-303-305-345-445-483-501-
060740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH
CROSBY GAINES HEMPHILL
HOCKLEY LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 264
VALID 060535Z - 060640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ROW TO
45 SE CVS TO 45 NE PVW TO 55 ESE BGD TO 25 E LBL.
..BROYLES..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-060640-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
OKC003-007-043-045-047-053-059-093-129-151-153-060640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC045-075-079-087-107-129-153-165-189-191-211-219-279-295-303-
305-345-445-483-501-060640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY
FLOYD GAINES HALE
HALL HEMPHILL HOCKLEY
LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY TERRY
WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 264
VALID 060445Z - 060540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CVS
TO 15 NE PVW TO 5 ESE LBL.
..SPC..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-041-060540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT
$$
OKC003-007-043-045-047-053-059-093-129-151-153-060540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-075-079-087-107-129-153-165-179-189-191-211-
219-233-279-295-303-305-345-357-393-445-483-501-060540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY
FLOYD GAINES GRAY
HALE HALL HEMPHILL
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOTLEY OCHILTREE ROBERTS
TERRY WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 264
VALID 060335Z - 060440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CVS TO
40 NW PVW TO 30 NE DHT.
..SMITH..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-041-060440-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT
$$
OKC003-007-043-045-047-053-059-093-129-139-151-153-060440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER MAJOR ROGER MILLS
TEXAS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-075-079-087-107-129-153-165-179-189-191-195-
211-219-233-279-295-303-305-341-345-357-375-381-393-421-437-445-
483-501-060440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY DONLEY
FLOYD GAINES GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOORE MOTLEY
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
TERRY WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 264
VALID 060240Z - 060340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/06/08
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...OUN...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-041-060340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA ROOSEVELT
$$
OKC003-007-043-045-059-093-129-139-151-153-060340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-107-111-117-129-153-165-179-
189-191-195-205-211-219-233-279-295-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-
375-381-393-421-437-445-483-501-060340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH CROSBY
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
FLOYD GAINES GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HARTLEY HEMPHILL HOCKLEY
HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB
LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE
MOTLEY OCHILTREE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
TERRY WHEELER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.