Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 740 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 263...WW
264...WW 265...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER IN SW AR
CONTINUES TO MOVE SSEWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH A SEPARATE N-S
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS LA. FARTHER W...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NE TX...AND THESE STORMS SHOULD
SPREAD SEWD WITH THE FRONT AND MERGING OUTFLOW TRAILING W FROM THE
SW AR CLUSTER. MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE S OF THE ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL RISK FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 266 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 080040Z - 080500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/ - 35SSW SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /19NW EIC - 44SE GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33020.
LAT...LON 32979280 31979277 31979533 32979538
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 266 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 266
VALID 080415Z - 080500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TYR TO
30 N IER TO 15 N IER.
WW 266 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080500Z.
..GRAMS..05/08/12
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC031-081-080500-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
DE SOTO RED RIVER
$$
TXC365-401-423-080500-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
