Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
HARRISON ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 265...WW
266...WW 267...
DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDED BY FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE GRADUALLY
TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 268 TORNADO AR OK 010425Z - 010900Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WNW HRO/HARRISON AR/ - 35SE MLC/MCALESTER OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /23NE RZC - 29SE MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 36459229 34509394 34509675 36459516
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 268 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 268
VALID 010840Z - 010940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ADM
TO 30 WSW RKR TO 15 ENE FSM TO 25 N FLP.
..GOSS..06/01/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-047-071-083-089-101-115-127-129-131-149-010940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MARION NEWTON
POPE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN YELL
$$
OKC077-079-010940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LATIMER LE FLORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 268
VALID 010740Z - 010840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MKO TO
10 ESE MKO TO 15 S FYV TO 25 NE HRO.
..GOSS..06/01/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-149-
010840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN
MADISON MARION NEWTON
POPE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN YELL
$$
OKC061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-135-010840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 268
VALID 010600Z - 010740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MKO TO
10 NNE MKO TO 25 NE MKO TO 15 SW GMJ.
..GOSS..06/01/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-
143-149-010740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
OKC001-021-041-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-135-010740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.