Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CORONA NEW MEXICO TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
MARFA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. A VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN MOST STORMS...WITH STRONGEST
STORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 272 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 022320Z - 030600Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW 4CR/CORONA NM/ - 65SSW MRF/MARFA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /49ESE ABQ - 54SSW MRF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 34630472 29500326 29500559 34630718
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 272 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 272
VALID 030424Z - 030540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE MRF
TO 30 NNE MRF TO 30 ESE GDP TO 30 SSE ROW TO 15 ENE SRR TO 35 NE
ROW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 944.
..EDWARDS..06/03/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-015-025-027-030540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES EDDY LEA
LINCOLN
$$
TXC043-109-243-301-389-030540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS
LOVING REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 272
VALID 030340Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF TO
15 SSW CNM TO 10 NE SRR TO 40 NNW ROW TO 45 NNE ROW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 944.
..EDWARDS..06/03/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-015-025-027-030440-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES EDDY LEA
LINCOLN
$$
TXC043-109-243-301-377-389-030440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS
LOVING PRESIDIO REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 272
VALID 030240Z - 030340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW MRF TO
55 SSW GDP TO 45 W GDP TO 20 WNW ALM TO 15 S 4CR TO 65 N ROW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 943.
..EDWARDS..06/03/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-011-015-027-035-030340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES DE BACA EDDY
LINCOLN OTERO
$$
TXC043-109-229-243-301-377-389-030340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CULBERSON HUDSPETH
JEFF DAVIS LOVING PRESIDIO
REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 272
VALID 030130Z - 030240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..06/03/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-011-013-015-019-027-029-035-051-053-057-030240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES DE BACA DONA ANA
EDDY GUADALUPE LINCOLN
LUNA OTERO SIERRA
SOCORRO TORRANCE
$$
TXC043-109-141-229-243-301-377-389-030240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CULBERSON EL PASO
HUDSPETH JEFF DAVIS LOVING
PRESIDIO REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 272
VALID 030025Z - 030140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..06/03/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-011-013-015-019-027-029-035-051-053-057-030140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES DE BACA DONA ANA
EDDY GUADALUPE LINCOLN
LUNA OTERO SIERRA
SOCORRO TORRANCE
$$
TXC043-109-141-229-243-301-377-389-030140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CULBERSON EL PASO
HUDSPETH JEFF DAVIS LOVING
PRESIDIO REEVES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.