Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 700 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 271. WATCH NUMBER 271 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1130 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 272...WW 273...WW 274...WW
275...WW 276...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE ALONG
WSW-ENE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED WAA/CONFLUENCE FROM THE AR/MO
BORDER INTO SRN KY. QUALITY OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AND MODERATE
WLY MID LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH
HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACK-BUILD/MERGE/REGENERATE OVER WW
THROUGH EARLY SAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LEWPS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 277 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 090330Z - 091100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/ - 40ESE JKL/JACKSON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /18NNW ARG - 59NNW HMV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
REPLACES WW 271..AR KY MO TN VA
LAT...LON 37119106 38048270 36598270 35669106
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 277 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 277
VALID 090645Z - 090740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W ARG TO
35 ENE DYR TO 10 NNW HOP TO 10 WNW BWG TO 40 ENE JKL.
..SPC..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...JKL...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-075-090740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE LAWRENCE
$$
KYC001-003-009-013-025-035-045-047-051-053-057-071-075-083-095-
109-119-121-125-129-131-133-137-141-147-153-169-171-189-193-195-
199-203-207-213-217-219-227-231-235-090740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BELL BREATHITT CALLOWAY
CASEY CHRISTIAN CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND FLOYD
FULTON GRAVES HARLAN
JACKSON KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LEE LESLIE
LETCHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCREARY MAGOFFIN METCALFE
MONROE OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR
TODD WARREN WAYNE
WHITLEY
$$
MOC069-155-090740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-027-033-045-049-053-079-083-087-095-111-125-131-133-137-
147-161-165-169-183-090740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CLAY CROCKETT
DYER FENTRESS GIBSON
HENRY HOUSTON JACKSON
LAKE MACON MONTGOMERY
OBION OVERTON PICKETT
ROBERTSON STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.