Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 280...
DISCUSSION...FULL HEATING HAS DEVELOPED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS EAST OF MOUNTAINS. WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP INITIALLY E OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT COULD DEVELOP.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 091720Z - 100100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25WSW CLT/CHARLOTTE NC/ - 25WNW NHK/PATUXENT RIVER MD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /23WSW CLT - 28SSE DCA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 35068276 38407831 38407537 35067994
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 281 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 281
VALID 100020Z - 100100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE RDU
TO 25 WNW NHK.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 281 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
10/01Z.
..KERR..05/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-100100-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
VAC007-025-036-041-053-057-087-097-101-103-127-133-149-159-193-
570-670-730-760-100100-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA BRUNSWICK CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE ESSEX
HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS HOPEWELL PETERSBURG
RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-100100-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 281
VALID 092330Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RDU TO
35 NE HKY TO 50 SSW PSK.
..KERR..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-100040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
NCC033-157-169-171-197-100040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASWELL ROCKINGHAM STOKES
SURRY YADKIN
$$
VAC007-009-011-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-
067-075-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-109-111-117-127-133-135-
141-143-145-147-149-159-193-515-570-590-670-680-690-730-760-
100040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA AMHERST APPOMATTOX
BEDFORD BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND
DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA
FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND HALIFAX
HANOVER HENRICO HENRY
KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND
NOTTOWAY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
RICHMOND WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE
HOPEWELL LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE
PETERSBURG RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-100040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 281
VALID 092235Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CLT TO
45 SSW PSK.
..KERR..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-092340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
NCC001-007-033-037-057-063-067-077-081-105-123-125-135-145-151-
153-157-167-169-171-179-181-185-197-092340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON CASWELL
CHATHAM DAVIDSON DURHAM
FORSYTH GRANVILLE GUILFORD
LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE
ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH
RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM STANLY
STOKES SURRY UNION
VANCE WARREN YADKIN
$$
VAC003-007-009-011-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-
065-067-075-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-109-111-117-125-127-
133-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-159-177-193-515-540-570-590-630-
670-680-690-730-760-092340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA
LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NELSON
NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
DANVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG
RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-092340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 281
VALID 092135Z - 092240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CLT
TO 25 N CLT TO 50 NNE HKY.
..KERR..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-092240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
NCC001-007-025-033-037-057-059-063-067-071-077-081-097-105-119-
123-125-135-145-151-153-157-159-167-169-171-179-181-185-197-
092240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON CABARRUS
CASWELL CHATHAM DAVIDSON
DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH
GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD
IREDELL LEE MECKLENBURG
MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE
PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND
ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STANLY
STOKES SURRY UNION
VANCE WARREN YADKIN
$$
VAC003-007-009-011-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-
065-067-075-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-109-111-117-125-127-
133-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-159-177-193-515-540-570-590-630-
670-680-690-730-760-092240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA
LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NELSON
NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
DANVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG
RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-092240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 281
VALID 092040Z - 092140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CLT TO
25 N CLT TO 40 NNE HKY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 783
..DIAL..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-092140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
NCC001-007-025-033-037-057-059-063-067-071-077-081-097-105-119-
123-125-135-145-151-153-157-159-167-169-171-179-181-185-197-
092140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON CABARRUS
CASWELL CHATHAM DAVIDSON
DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH
GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD
IREDELL LEE MECKLENBURG
MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE
PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND
ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STANLY
STOKES SURRY UNION
VANCE WARREN YADKIN
$$
VAC003-007-009-011-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-
065-067-075-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-109-111-117-125-127-
133-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-159-177-193-515-540-570-590-630-
670-680-690-730-760-092140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA
LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NELSON
NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
DANVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG
RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-092140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 281
VALID 091935Z - 092040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...GSP...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC037-092040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. MARYS
$$
NCC001-003-007-023-025-027-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-071-
077-081-089-097-105-109-111-119-123-125-135-145-149-151-153-157-
159-161-167-169-171-175-179-181-185-193-197-092040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON
BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL
CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM
CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE
DURHAM FORSYTH GASTON
GRANVILLE GUILFORD HENDERSON
IREDELL LEE LINCOLN
MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY
MOORE ORANGE PERSON
POLK RANDOLPH RICHMOND
ROCKINGHAM ROWAN RUTHERFORD
STANLY STOKES SURRY
TRANSYLVANIA UNION VANCE
WARREN WILKES YADKIN
$$
VAC003-007-009-011-019-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-
065-067-075-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-109-111-117-125-127-
133-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-159-177-193-515-540-570-590-630-
670-680-690-730-760-092040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERST
APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GOOCHLAND
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA
LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NELSON
NEW KENT NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHARLOTTESVILLE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
DANVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG
RICHMOND
$$
ANZ537-092040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.