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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 280...
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF MCS/S ARE ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
WRN TX IN ADVANCE OF A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM...MOIST...AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 060245Z - 061000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
80WSW LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 75NE ABI/ABILENE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /66WSW LBB - 49S SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 34220309 34209876 32169876 32200309
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 281 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 281
VALID 060835Z - 060940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BGS TO
25 NNE BGS TO 35 W ABI TO 5 ESE ABI TO 35 NNE BWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 975
..DIAL..06/06/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-227-235-307-335-353-399-411-431-441-451-
060940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO HOWARD
IRION MCCULLOCH MITCHELL
NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
STERLING TAYLOR TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 281
VALID 060725Z - 060840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BGS TO
25 NNE BGS TO 35 WNW ABI TO 15 ENE ABI TO 40 W MWL TO 25 SW SPS
TO 40 W SPS TO 50 SE CDS TO 55 SSE CDS TO 40 S CDS TO 15 SSW CDS.
..DIAL..06/06/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-155-197-227-235-307-335-
353-399-411-429-431-441-451-485-487-060840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COKE COLEMAN
CONCHO COTTLE EASTLAND
FOARD HARDEMAN HOWARD
IRION MCCULLOCH MITCHELL
NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR
TOM GREEN WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 281
VALID 060655Z - 060740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N BGS TO
25 WNW ABI TO 30 E ABI TO 40 WSW MWL TO 55 SSW SPS TO 70 SSE CDS
TO 65 S CDS TO 45 SSW CDS TO 15 SW CDS.
..DIAL..06/06/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-155-197-227-235-269-
275-307-335-353-399-411-429-431-441-451-485-487-503-060740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO COTTLE
EASTLAND FOARD HARDEMAN
HOWARD IRION KING
KNOX MCCULLOCH MITCHELL
NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR
TOM GREEN WICHITA WILBARGER
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 281
VALID 060600Z - 060740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BGS
TO 25 N BGS TO 45 SE LBB TO 40 ESE PVW TO 40 E PVW.
..DIAL..06/06/13
ATTN...WFO...MAF...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-125-133-151-155-197-207-
227-235-253-263-269-275-307-335-345-353-399-411-415-417-429-431-
433-441-447-451-485-487-503-060740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO COTTLE
DICKENS EASTLAND FISHER
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
HOWARD IRION JONES
KENT KING KNOX
MCCULLOCH MITCHELL MOTLEY
NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WICHITA
WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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