Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 280...WW 281...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF E/W BOUNDARY VICINITY LA/AR BORDER. WITH
MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR AOA 2500 J/KG AND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS
COULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT AS THEY MOVE E VICINITY OF BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 282 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 091750Z - 100100Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65SW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 45ESE LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /57W TXK - 38W SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 34479519 34479102 32299102 32299519
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 282 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 282
VALID 100030Z - 100100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PRX
TO 10 WNW DEQ TO 10 E DEQ TO 20 NNE TXK TO 30 SSE TXK TO 10 NNW
TYR.
WW 282 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100100Z.
..JEWELL..05/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC081-091-133-100100-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-100100-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-315-343-387-449-459-499-100100-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN MARION MORRIS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 282
VALID 092330Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PRX
TO 20 E DEQ TO 40 NE TXK TO 35 NW ELD TO 25 SSW LLQ TO 10 SE GLH.
..JEWELL..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-027-057-061-073-081-091-133-139-100040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT COLUMBIA
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-119-123-
100040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL JACKSON
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
OKC089-100040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-100040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 282
VALID 092245Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PRX
TO 35 E DEQ TO 40 S HOT TO 15 NNE LLQ TO 30 N GLH.
..JEWELL..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-057-061-073-079-081-
091-099-103-133-139-092340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA
SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-119-123-
092340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL JACKSON
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
OKC089-092340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-092340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 282
VALID 092140Z - 092240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE MLC TO
25 NNE DEQ TO 30 WSW HOT TO 15 WNW PBF TO 55 ENE PBF.
..JEWELL..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-057-061-069-073-
079-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-092240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW HEMPSTEAD
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
SEVIER UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-119-123-
092240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL JACKSON
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
OKC089-092240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-092240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 282
VALID 092040Z - 092140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 782.
..GRAMS..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-091-097-099-103-109-113-133-139-092140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE POLK SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-119-123-
092140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL JACKSON
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
OKC089-092140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-092140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 282
VALID 091930Z - 092040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/09/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-091-097-099-103-109-113-133-139-092040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE POLK SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-035-049-061-065-067-073-083-111-119-123-
092040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL JACKSON
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
OKC089-092040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-449-459-499-092040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.