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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 125 AM UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 283...WW 284...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS VICINITY SERN KS/OK BORDER IS
DRIVEN BY UPPER S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 285 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 090625Z - 091000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WNW GMJ/GROVE OK/ - 35NE HRO/HARRISON AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /22SSW OSW - 53SE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 37549541 37349269 35909269 36119541
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 285 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 285
VALID 090850Z - 090940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FYV TO
15 E GMJ TO 15 NNE UMN TO 15 N SGF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 835
..GUYER..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-009-015-087-089-101-129-143-090940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOONE CARROLL
MADISON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-043-067-077-109-119-153-209-213-090940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS
GREENE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
OZARK STONE TANEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 285
VALID 090730Z - 090840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-009-015-087-089-101-129-143-090840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOONE CARROLL
MADISON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-037-090840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-043-057-067-077-097-109-119-145-153-209-213-090840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN
DADE DOUGLAS GREENE
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON OZARK STONE
TANEY
$$
OKC035-041-097-115-131-143-090840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
OTTAWA ROGERS TULSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
