Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 286...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND
A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 300 AM UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 280...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 282...TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 283. WATCH NUMBER 280 282 283 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
300 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 284...WW 285...
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES
WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING IN PLACE FOR SUPPORT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. MOST LIKELY AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
VICINITY OF E/W BOUNDARY VICINITY VA/NC BORDER WHICH MAY SHIFT A
LITTLE NWD ERN PORTION OF WATCH. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 286 TORNADO MD NC VA CW 090700Z - 091300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20WSW GSO/GREENSBORO NC/ - 50NE ORF/NORFOLK VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /14WSW GSO - 44NE ORF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
REPLACES WW 280..NC VA WV
REPLACES WW 282..NC SC
REPLACES WW 283..MD NC VA CW
LAT...LON 36938026 38347555 36477555 35048026
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 286 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 286
VALID 091240Z - 091340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RWI
TO 30 NNE RIC.
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 286 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY
EXTENDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 839
..GUYER..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-041-053-073-091-117-139-143-147-187-091340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES
HERTFORD MARTIN PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-036-057-073-087-093-095-097-101-103-115-119-127-131-133-
149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-
740-760-800-810-830-091340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK CHARLES CITY ESSEX
GLOUCESTER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS FRANKLIN
HAMPTON HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK PETERSBURG POQUOSON
PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-652-654-656-658-091340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 286
VALID 091200Z - 091340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E RWI TO
25 NW RIC.
..GUYER..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-041-053-065-073-083-091-117-131-139-143-147-187-
091340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CHOWAN CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE
GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD
MARTIN NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON
$$
VAC001-007-025-036-041-053-057-073-081-087-093-095-097-101-103-
115-119-127-131-133-135-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-
620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-091340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK
CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE
ESSEX GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE
HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
MATHEWS MIDDLESEX NEW KENT
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-652-654-656-658-091340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 286
VALID 091000Z - 091140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE SOP
TO 25 ENE LYH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 836
..GUYER..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC009-037-091140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT ST. MARYS
$$
NCC013-015-029-041-053-065-069-073-077-079-083-091-101-105-117-
127-131-139-143-147-181-183-185-187-195-091140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CHOWAN CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD
JOHNSTON LEE MARTIN
NASH NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PITT VANCE
WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON
WILSON
$$
VAC001-007-025-036-037-041-053-057-073-081-083-087-093-095-097-
101-103-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-149-159-175-181-183-193-
199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-
091140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
DINWIDDIE ESSEX GLOUCESTER
GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HENRICO
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LUNENBURG
MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
NOTTOWAY PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND
SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX
WESTMORELAND YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ533-534-537-630-631-632-633-652-654-656-658-091140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.