Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NRN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS. BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27520.
...DIAL/Hales
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 286 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 101830Z - 110100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 30NE MEI/MERIDIAN MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /37SE EIC - 26NE MEI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27520.
LAT...LON 33069336 33438838 31848838 31479336
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 286 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 286
VALID 110035Z - 110100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHV
TO 50 W JAN TO 15 SSE GWO.
AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 01Z EXPIRATION.
..KERR..05/11/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-025-029-041-043-049-059-065-069-081-083-107-127-
110100-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER RICHLAND
TENSAS WINN
$$
MSC001-007-021-023-029-037-049-051-061-063-069-075-079-085-089-
099-101-103-121-123-127-129-149-159-163-110100-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH FRANKLIN
HINDS HOLMES JASPER
JEFFERSON KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON
SMITH WARREN WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 286
VALID 102340Z - 110040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-110040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-007-021-023-029-037-049-051-053-055-061-063-069-075-079-
085-089-099-101-103-121-123-125-127-129-149-159-163-110040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH FRANKLIN
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WARREN WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 286
VALID 102230Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-102340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-007-021-023-029-037-049-051-053-055-061-063-069-075-079-
085-089-099-101-103-121-123-125-127-129-149-159-163-102340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH FRANKLIN
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WARREN WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 286
VALID 102130Z - 102240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-102240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-007-021-023-029-037-049-051-053-055-061-063-069-075-079-
085-089-099-101-103-121-123-125-127-129-149-159-163-102240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH FRANKLIN
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WARREN WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.