Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 286. WATCH NUMBER 286 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 750 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE/FORWARD-PROPAGATING PART OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM NOW EXTENDING FROM E OF JAN S AND WSW INTO NE LA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E INTO AL...WHILE W-E ORIENTED PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY S
INTO SW MS. ADDITIONAL WET MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN
FORWARD-PROPAGATING PORTION...EWD INTO THE MEI AREA AND WRN AL. A
SMALL CHANCE WILL ALSO EXIST FOR SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS
TO EVOLVE OVER SW MS. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND UVV ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO THE N SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...DESPITE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 287 SEVERE TSTM AL LA MS 110050Z - 110600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35NW HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 25S SEM/SELMA AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /36SSE MLU - 36WSW MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
REPLACES WW 286..LA MS
LAT...LON 32709172 32708698 31268698 31259172
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 287 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 287
VALID 110425Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MOB
TO 40 SSW TCL.
..KERR..05/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-035-047-091-099-105-129-131-110540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
DALLAS MARENGO MONROE
PERRY WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 287
VALID 110340Z - 110440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PIB TO
35 NE MEI.
..KERR..05/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-035-047-063-065-091-099-105-119-129-131-110440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
DALLAS GREENE HALE
MARENGO MONROE PERRY
SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC023-035-041-067-069-073-075-111-153-110440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GREENE
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 287
VALID 110240Z - 110340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HEZ TO
35 N PIB TO 35 NW MEI.
..KERR..05/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-025-035-047-063-065-091-099-105-119-129-131-110340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
DALLAS GREENE HALE
MARENGO MONROE PERRY
SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
LAC025-029-107-110340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA TENSAS
$$
MSC001-021-023-029-031-035-037-041-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-
077-085-091-099-101-111-127-129-153-110340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GREENE JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NESHOBA NEWTON PERRY
SIMPSON SMITH WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.