Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 110 MILES NORTH OF
DOUGLAS WYOMING TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH DVLPG EAST ACRS ROCKIES ATTM WILL
AID STORM INITIATION AND MAINTENENCE ACROSS AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COUNTERED BY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORCING...AND SHEAR
AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPREADS EAST. GENERALLY HIGH-BASED
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ATTENDANT THREATS
OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CARBIN
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 110 MILES NORTH OF
DOUGLAS WYOMING TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH DVLPG EAST ACRS ROCKIES ATTM WILL
AID STORM INITIATION AND MAINTENENCE ACROSS AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COUNTERED BY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORCING...AND SHEAR
AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPREADS EAST. GENERALLY HIGH-BASED
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ATTENDANT THREATS
OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 287 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 091830Z - 100300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
110N DGW/DOUGLAS WY/ - 10SW SNY/SIDNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50ENE CZI - 9SW SNY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 44330384 40990168 40990455 44330688
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 287 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 287
VALID 100025Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SNY
TO 55 ENE SNY.
REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 287 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC049-100140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 287
VALID 092330Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SNY
TO 20 SE CDR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 844
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC049-069-161-100040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEUEL GARDEN SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 287
VALID 092235Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S DGW TO
35 N DGW TO 10 W GCC.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-092340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-092340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC005-009-015-021-027-031-045-092340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 287
VALID 092130Z - 092240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 843.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-092240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-092240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC005-009-015-021-027-031-045-092240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 287
VALID 092035Z - 092140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-092140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-092140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC005-009-015-021-027-031-045-092140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 287
VALID 091940Z - 092040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 287
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-092040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-092040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC005-009-015-021-027-031-045-092040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.